Copper prices could soar to new heights according to prominent trader Kostas Bintas, who is predicting record highs amid tightening global supply and market dislocations caused by US trade policies.
Bintas, who previously built Trafigura Group’s copper book into the world’s largest, is now driving a metals push at Mercuria Energy Group.
He expects copper prices to climb by as much as a third from current levels (which traded at $US9855.5 per tonne on Friday).
“We think there is something exceptional happening in the copper market,” Bintas told Bloomberg.
“Is it unreasonable to expect a copper price of $12,000 or $13,000 (per tonne)? I’m struggling to put a number on it because this has never happened before.”
“In terms of the margins per tonne, I’ve never seen a better trading opportunity.”
A potential driver behind this surge is the massive shift of copper stockpiles into the US, driven by US President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs.
While broad tariffs have yet to be imposed, domestic copper prices in the US have risen to more than $US1400 per tonne above global prices, creating a powerful incentive for traders to divert every available tonne into the American market.
“The huge amounts of metal being drawn into the US will leave the rest of the world – and crucially, top consumer China – perilously short,” Bintas said.
With China accounting for more than half of global demand, its buyers will now have to compete with US purchasers for limited supply, which in turn will drive up the price.
For Australia, one of the world’s largest copper producers, this presents a significant opportunity.
Companies like BHP is readying itself for a copper boom, with chief executive officer Mike Henry outlining the company’s aggressive expansion strategy at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference.
“We expect global copper demand to be over 50 million tonnes a year by 2050, more than 70 per cent higher than 2021 levels,” Henry said. “And there’s just not enough production yet being developed to supply it.”
BHP is taking steps to bridge this supply gap, with the company’s copper production growing 10 per cent over the past year, with a projected 24 per cent increase by June 2025.
Central to this growth are significant projects in Chile and South Australia.
Henry said BHP is the world’s largest copper producer and has the world’s largest copper resource, totalling 44 billion tonnes at 0.59 per cent copper.
BHP produces copper from its South Australian business, including the Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill and Carrapateena mines. The company is also a prominent producer in Chile through its Escondida and Pampa Norte operations and is looking to kickstart more growth in the country.
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