It is stunning that some people just don't seem to grasp that governments tailor budgets to aid with their re election
Governments often design budgets to favor their election chances when delivering them close to elections. This phenomenon, known as pre-electoral fiscal manipulation, is particularly prevalent in developing countries and new democracies[5].
Pre-electoral fiscal manipulation typically involves spending more or taxing less prior to an election to enhance the incumbent government's chances of reelection[5]. This practice is more common in countries with:
1. Less consolidated democracies 2. Lower political system transparency 3. Less independent media 4. Less aware voters 5. Lower economic development[5]
Research has shown that pre-electoral fiscal manipulation is more likely to occur when:
1. International election monitors are present, making direct election manipulation more difficult[5]. 2. There is less international economic scrutiny, such as the absence of IMF agreements[5].
In Brazil, for example, studies have found that politicians running for reelection allocate public funds differently compared to those not seeking reelection. Those with electoral concerns are less likely to target poorer and less developed municipalities[6].
It's important to note that the ability to engage in pre-electoral fiscal manipulation can be constrained by budget institutions and processes. In some countries, like Sweden, legislative budget decisions show evidence of electoral cycles, with more spendthrift behavior observed in the run-up to elections[4].
While pre-electoral fiscal manipulation is a common strategy, its effectiveness and long-term impact on economic stability and democratic processes remain subjects of debate among economists and political scientists.
Citations: [1] https://www.parliament.uk/about/how...nding-and-taxation/the-budget-and-parliament/ [2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=656582 [3] https://us.sagepub.com/sites/defaul...ts_Rubin_The_Politics_of_Public_Budgeting.pdf [4] https://personal.lse.ac.uk/wehner/cycles.pdf [5] https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/112795/2010-07.pdf [6] https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/19/5/2467/6041737 [7] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/...fting-a-budget-in-record-speed_6724927_5.html [8] https://www.jstor.org/stable/43868829
