trading non-farm payroll (nfp) live, page-4

hey Bmer,

the NFP is such a hard and fast event, and my ability to play fundamentals is pretty poor, trading wise...

The actual trading event just revolves around trading one of the strongest market (currencies, specifically USD) movers... so it has zip, zero nada to do with what the figures might mean ... and all to do with what happens and how to play it technically POST (as in within minutes) of the announcement.

all in all though, fundamentally, if the NFP figures are higher than expected (more jobs) then this would suggest recovery occurring in US economey and possible resultant flow on effect could be stronger USD... Stronger US econemy, one would think less concern about the inflationary aspects of Quantitative easing and thus something like gold, the ultimate hedge against inflation, would be less of a safe haven...

If the NFP figures are less than expected the opposite COULD occur...

Though like I say... the actual trading AFTER the NFP announcement is all to do with technical aspects, eg, a surge in one particular direction after the announcement... chillin like a villian and jumping on an appropriate USD cross pair in the direction of the surge after the first retrace n trying to hang on for maxo pips or at worst b/e...

so tis purely a short term Highly technical play with no influence of what the figures might MEAN just how to ride the markets and run with the herd when appropriate.

Hey I should be popping you an email tonight...

if not early saturday...

BUT... I reckon.. take a look at yer question, and understand if you don't "know" the answer, then you might be asking the "wrong" question as a trader.

I don't want to go into it too much here as I don't want you to feel I am having a go at you, I am MOST definately NOT... but ultimately from my perspective there is no such thing as cut and dried reaction to potentialy market moving noews, IE a particular effect can be from many causes and if there was a direct correlation that could be traded on, FOREX would be remarkably easy and a no-brainer and the smart guys would never lose money and the dumb guys wouuld make a hash of their trading... truth be known tho the smarter guys (in terms of the retail traders) have a tendency at least early in their trading careers to lose money cos they think there will be a logical reaction and simple valuation based on news and other fundamental events, near or close to the times of the news/events... In my experience this just aint the case. The people who think less and trade as dictated by the market, not what they think the market should do (call em the dumb guys, something I am desperate to become :) ) tend to be the ones that grasp forex the way it needs to be grasped and profit from it.

There is no out-thinking the market :)

and further correlations say from USD to Gold to NCM to NFP ... mmmm pretty unlikely that buying of NCM (and indeed the broader Australian stockmarket today) has anything to do with tonights NFP...but if you look at a technical chart of the Australian top 200 (XJO) you will see that as a whole the market performed a breakout of a range that has been going on for a few months now...

the massive buying across the board is not so likely due to NFP in my totally unhumble opinion but instead shows a confirmation of bullish sentiment in Australian stocks...

In the same part, last night, of all the cross currencies versus the USD, the AUD held up whil others fell, this may have prompted Foreign investors to get into Australian assets... meh who knows...

But price movement in shares (even ones associated with currencies such as gold miners) as a reaction to potential NFP figures in US tonight... somehow I don't think so... But truth be known.. I don't really know...

;)