VAU (ASX) Can VAULT crack 50 cents Monday?

Originally posted by Greatone: ↑

I don't agree with a lot of posts on this site. Everybody seems to take aim at the Vault management for not spruiking the company enough and blaming the low share price on that. I don't agree.
I am not sure who of you have seen the comparison table on the WGX hotcopper thread? I am not going to steal somebody else's work and re post it here but i recommend you take a look at it. Its one of the best pieces of information on all of HC and it compares many of the gold companies on many metrics.
Vault, in my opinion, benchmarks very well against PNR. Both Vault and PNR have management that doesnt spruik the company hard enough. Both have management that seem reasonable competent at producing gold but not very good at spruiking the share price. Both companies have a similar AISC and both have a bit of a growth profile but not too compelling.
Vault is about 4 times the size of PNR in terms of gold ounces produced and so, using that benchmark, absent the drag of hedges, Vault should have an EV of about $4B or about 4 times the PNR EV. Including cash and bullion but ignoring hedges Vault should have a market capitalisation in the range of $4.8B or be trading at about 70cents per share. This $4.8B estimate includes the EV of $4B plus cash and bullion of circa $600M at 1 January plus an allowance for cash and bullion generated this quarter.
This Vault/PNR benchmark is a reasonably good one in my opinion excluding hedges which Vault has but PNR doesnt really have much of. I get the reason that Vault needed to take out hedges to obtain finance and am not criticising the management for that but the reality is those hedges are a big drag.
So by benchmarking against PNR (which is cheap itself) Vault looks really cheap.
The only way the share price looks reasonable is as a multiple of EBIT. Using the last HY numbers, Vault is trading at roughly 4 x (EV/EBIT). Using that benchmark Vault's share price looks reasonable against other similar goldies. So I presume this is why the Vault share price trades where it does.
Except that the EBIT includes the HY hedging impact. So applying a multiplier to it assumes the hedging will continue forever. Except it wont.
So..... the Vault share price looks perfectly sensible assuming a multiple of EBIT except that the EBIT doesnt look a sensible thing to multiply.
Another way of saying this is that the Vault share price is being too heavily discounted because of the hedging situation. Mathematically that makes much more sense to me than simply sledging the management. All of the criticisms levelled here at the Vault management also apply to the PNR management except that the PNR share price benchmarks much higher. So the only material difference in the benchmark is the hedging and so the conclusion I draw is that the hedging is the thing making the difference.
I get the emotional feeling of wanting the share price to be higher and blaming the management who don't seem to be pushing hard enough. But the numbers don't look to me to be saying that the management are the big reason. I think its more about the hedging.

Expand

Mate,

I don’t know why we need a 5 page word salad of nothing to tell us ex SLR holders that our VAU shares are fairly valued. Seriously what is your agenda?

Let’s see the share price hit 50c May LY and is now 45c with gold valued $1500 more.

Insiders selling, forecasting lower and no contingency plans to mitigate the impact of the hedges.

Where is Jean and Sam to bring this newbie up to speed.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
54	1045357	41.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1045357

41.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
42.0¢	2938148	68

Price($)

Vol.

No.

42.0¢

2938148

No.	Vol.	Price($)
57	1072890	0.415
36	2464498	0.410
17	983853	0.405
24	2878470	0.400
21	1612279	0.395

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1072890

0.415

2464498

0.410

983853

0.405

2878470

0.400

1612279

0.395

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.420	2947384	70
0.425	3584560	77
0.430	1228036	36
0.435	677387	18
0.440	1631608	25

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.420

2947384

0.425

3584560

0.430

1228036

0.435

677387

0.440

1631608

(20min delay)
Last 41.5¢		Change 0.010(2.47%)		Mkt cap ! $2.823B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
41.0¢	42.5¢	40.8¢	$9.169M	21.92M

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