I hear you, and I appreciate the optimism — and yes, the fundamentals at face value do seem strong, no doubt. But let’s clear up a few things, because your response shows you're not factoring in how the speculative side of the ASX actually works.
Firstly — having a JORC resource doesn't automatically remove the speculative risk. Tons of stocks have compliant JORCs and solid projects, yet still behave like speculative stocks because they're not generating revenue, they're dependent on funding, and they haven't reached production. IXR is one of them. It’s not a mature producer — it's still developing, which makes it speculative by nature.
Secondly — shares on issue does matter. Saying it’s irrelevant misses how valuation actually works. Market cap = share price × shares on issue. That’s the only way to determine our investment’s actual value. If the share price is going nowhere and they keep raising capital through dilution, our slice of the pie shrinks. BHP can have 5 billion shares because it brings in billions in revenue. IXR doesn’t — and we’ve already seen dilution after dilution.
Third — having patented tech is great, but unless it’s commercialized and producing income, it’s still just a promise. Potential ≠ profit. And in speculative stocks, it’s that gap between potential and delivery that causes volatility and risk.
Lastly — yes, rare earths are in demand, and yes, IXR is strategically placed. That’s why many of us are still here. But hype cycles, capital raises, and sudden SP moves are still very real and ongoing. That’s what makes IXR high-risk and speculative, despite the promising fundamentals.
We long-term holders have seen this story play out many times — and we've learned the hard way that solid announcements don't always equal SP growth when the market is playing games.
I’m still hopeful — but let’s be honest with newer investors about what this stock is. It is speculative. It's also potentially rewarding. But it’s not low risk. Not yet.
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