sdl: 10 vs. 100+ bagger sp before 2014

SDL: 10 vs. 100+ BAGGER SP GROWTH before 2014 and 1st ore shipment
(OR CONSERVATIVE VRS WILDCAT sp growth)

Firstly, I am relatively new to SDL. I want to thank some of the great posts and research that has been posted, such as those by Pythagerous and Bigstar:
Thank you. I appreciate the effort and it aided my decision.


I'm of the opinion at the very least SDL will have CONSERVATIVE GROWTH,
and at best, WILDCAT GROWTH before 1st ore shipment.



CONSERVATIVE GROWTH

Timeline:

Pythagerous posted in December (post 102684)
the timeline before the first ore is shipped.

Quote:

"Complete DFS (By March 2011)
Secure Strategic Partners (By May 2011)
Mining Conventions Ratified (By June 2011)
Project Readiness and Financing Plan (July 2011)
Final Investment Decision (By September 2011)
Early Start (By September 2011)
Begin Construction of Railway (By September 2011)
Begin Construction of Mine (By March 2012)
Begin Construction of Port (By June 2012)
First Ore to Ship (By March 2014)"


The key to meeting that timeline, is the finance, and I think the Chinese will be the main financiers.

The ore numbers are so big for a start-up, it would be the one that got away for the Chinese, just when their future domestic demand is set to skyrocket.

Berlinerbaers (post 6194377) had a line that shows Chinese future demand:


According to CRU, an international consultancy group, China accounts for around 40 percent of global metals consumption and may double its imports of iron ore and coking coal over the next 10 years as the country's annual steel consumption is likely to double to 1 billion metric tons by 2020.


They are already have/trying to get a foothold in the region, SDL would give them huge a running start in this next 'Pilbara'. And if the Chinese dont finance it, there are potential suitors (the Koreans) that will.



PRODUCTION COSTS:


We should be a low cost producer, which should protect against any future global market(s) bursting, or ore becoming oversupplied.




10+ BAGGER CONSERVATIVE GROWTH CONCLUSION:

WHEN WE GET FINANCE, AND IF THE ABOVE SDL TIMELINE IS MET, AT THE VERY LEAST WE SHOULD GET 10 BAGGER GROWTH BEFORE THE FIRST ORE IS SHIPPED. AND A GOOD PART OF THAT GROWTH MAY OCCUR BEFORE/AS WE GET TO THE RAILWAY & MINE CONSTRUCTION START-UP, WHICH MEANS THE YEAR LEADING INTO MARCH 2012 WILL BE VERY EXCITING.




WILDCAT GROWTH

Wildcat growth is what it implies: growth that is wild and unpredictable. Here's a list of things that are capable of turbo charging SP growth in SDL to 100+ (providing the above conservative growth measures are still met).



1. PRODUCT (SDL) AWARENESS:

Without buyer awareness, no stock can be sold - there's no buyers. Without a lot of buyers aware of a stock, the chances of huge demand (and matching growth) is greatly diminished.

SDL already has its presence in the psyche of many Australians because of the 2010 accident.

Phildo (post 6144623, which is a good read) touched on this in January.

Quote:

"In the taxi that I currently drive, I deal with mining people on a daily basis as I work in the West Perth area a lot (ie where most mining companies are based). I have all sorts of conversations with engineers, project managers, HR people, etc.
Before June last year no-one had heard of Sundance. Now, everyone knows who and what the company is. Instead of being just another wannabee producer, it is now well known and regarded".


I would also contend many people are aware of the company, because of the accident, but don't know the name. (Last year I was such a person, and the only ore miner name I knew was FMG)



2. MEDIA FOLLOW THROUGH: Since the accident, I think the company is firmly on the media radar.

For example:

For comparison, I googled SUNDANCE RESOURCES, ATLAS IRON and IRONCLAD MINING for news stories for the last month. The results were:

SUNDANCE RESOURCES: 183 results
ATLAS IRON: 109 results
IRONCLAD MINING: 8 results




3. PUBLIC GROUNDSWELL SUPPORT (MUMS AND DADS)

This is dependent on the first 2 points happening, which they are to a degree. So a groundswell already may be occurring. For a more tangible groundswell momentum to occur, we need to:
a/ Meet the business timeline;
b/ Become a media darling or/& get publicity.

The first point is get-able, but the second is greatly out of SDLs hands (but a charismatic SDL spoke-person would help).



.
4. A BULL ORE MARKET FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS: This is contentious. Are we heading into such a run? I think it is possible (but personally my investment strategy is to still err on the side of caution). But if it happens, watch SDLs price rocket.


BUT AT THE VERY LEAST, I BELIEVE INTERNAL GROWTH IN CHINA, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE INDIA AND RUSSIA'S INTERNAL GROWTH, WILL STILL PROPEL ORE PRICES, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, SLOW ANY DECLINE. PLUS, IF INTERNATIONAL HOARDING OF ORE GAINS MOMENTUM, THE PRICE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE (check nectar38's post 6287889).



5. THE FMG TEMPLATE: Andrew Forrest and FMG have shown it is possible for a non-producing ore company to be a 100+ bagger. He did it in the Pilbara, we can do it in the next Pilbara, Mbalam.




100+ BAGGER WILDCAT GROWTH CONCLUSION:

POSSIBLE, AS SOME OF THE SEEDS THAT CAN MAKE IT HAPPEN HAVE ALREADY BEEN PLANTED.




Personally, I believe SDLs growth will fall as follows, based on current 52cent SP:

By March 2012, as long as we are meeting the business timeline, conservatively the SP should double, perhaps triple. Taking WILDCAT growth into account, perhaps be as high as a 5 to 20+ bagger.

By ores first shipment, conservatively the SP should be a 10 bagger. Taking WILDCAT growth into account, perhaps be as high as a 20 to 50 bagger, and if the gods align, a 100+ bagger.

One to five years after ores first shipment, conservatively the SP should be a 20 to 30 bagger. Taking WILDCAT growth into account, a 100+ bagger.


This is a very subjective post, so feel free to agree/disagree.
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Please DYOR Cheers! :)

Current stocks held: ADO SDL SBL NKP