OK here's my "two cents worth" (pun absolutely intended) from a non O&G person and someone that dabbles in shares in my spare time, and "investing" in MAY these last few years.
The oil price movements in the last few days as a result of an announcement in a certain rose garden in Washington has smashed the oil price and that has immediate impact on companies like WDS and STO on the ASX and the likes of CVX and XOM on the NYSE who are regular producers of oil. MAY is different to these by a long shot because we are still basically an explorer, despite the narrative that we are now a producer (which is yet to be properly demonstrated). Our SP on that basis alone should be more long-term focused rather than reacting to the daily price of Brent, WTI etc. It should be more about the reservoir and what it holds, and the longer-term average oil price rather than daily or even weekly or monthly price fluctuations.
For anyone who missed it, OPEC+ made the "shock" decision to raise production in May this year,
https://www.tradingview.com/news/in...t-as-opec-surprises-with-may-production-hike/
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...-arabia-pushes-opec-open-oil-taps-2025-04-04/
This move is seen as a temporary measure, partly to "punish" members including Kazakhstan and Iraq for not complying with their agreed production cuts. All OPEC+ members are meant to toe the line, but clearly domestic interests get in the way sometimes. Production and prices will fall back into place IMO in the medium term, to maintain a steady oil price despite the shenanigans in Washington.
What does all this mean for MAY? Long-term, nothing IM (honest) O. Disclaimer, I am a holder of a couple of M in MAY and I want to see the SP rise, but I also trade MAY when the opportunity arises, e.g. I bought another M in December last year at 2.8, sold at 4.0 and a bit under after the recent excitement, but still hold LT based on what I believe the odds are we are sitting on something major that we will (hopefully) eventually bring to the surface and sell from everything that's been officially disclosed to the market to date. In that scenario, by the time we really ramp up into production, the short-term price fluctuations will have ironed out and we need to be focused on the long-term average price, not what appears in our daily news cycle of oil prices.
IMO patience is the key here. I agree the downturn in MAY SP the last couple of days is a result of (a) no update, which makes people fear the worst so sell for a loss before bad news breaks, and (b) the fallout from the rose garden announcement, where people are forced to sell MAY for a loss despite their convictions because they need readily available cash to cover other losses.
I'm trusting the following post is correct, and like other here I'm thinking the update when it comes will not be generally viewed by SHs as "positive" but more work by the company is coming, so my advice to myself here is hang on tight.
