Above was yesterday's higher volume transactions. Who's been selling in big chunks yesterday? What do they know that we don't? I took off my small position 5 mins before markets close to do more research over the weekend.
Now that I've got some time in the morning, I've seen news that QLD HCC is down to low US$140/t already recently. In 2024, QLD HCC average was circa US$240/t. Stanmore achieved US$168/t price on an averaged basis in 2024 for its entire portfolio, which is 70% of QLD HCC benchmark. Now that HCC is at US$140/t, if we assume the product mix is the same, the price being achieved by Stanmore today is 70% of US$140/t which is US$98/t. QLD royalty regime is 7% for up to US$100/t price, this means that almost US$7/t is given as royalties, leaving only US$91/t 'net revenue after royalty' to Stanmore. With a 2025 guidance on FOB Cash cost of US$89-94/t (excluding royalties), the margins had been totally decimated! No wonder the share price kept falling...
The big question mark that investors have to face is if the situation will turn around, i.e. coking coal price is going to rebound over the next year, if not, then the 2025 accounts will definitely not look good and the US$700M EBITDA achieved in 2024 would have evaporated entirely. I must say I'm on the fence on this one for now..
SMR Price at posting:
$1.65 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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