I like to compare company presentations to measure how the story is progressing. I do this as part of my own research to see how my stocks are doing. After further review I find this presentation a bullish development. Here is the Lynas Quarter to quarter comparison of prentation slides from Today's Presentation TO 27-28 September 2010:
Slide 1 matches Sep Slide 1
Slide 2 matches Sep Slide 2
September Slides 3, 11,12, 13, 20, 31, 33, 35 deleated. 3 Titled: Todays Agenda-September project update; 11 Titled: Rare Earths Usage By Application; 12 Titled: Elemental Pinch Points Demand and Supply for 2010 (element by element analysis); 13 Titled: Pinch Points Demand and Supply for 2014 (element by element analysis); 20 Titled: The products are set for Phase 1; Lynas hasproduct flexibility in phase 2; 31 Titled: Expansion beyond first production will be drivenby customer requirements and commitments-How Lynas Will Cost Effectively Expand; 33 Basic Construction Photo; 35 Titled: Operational expenses are dominated by reagent and energy costs. Deleated.
Slide 3 matches Sep Slide 4
Slide 4 matches Sep Slide 5
Slide 5 matches Sep Slide 6
Slide 6 matches Sep Slide 7
Slide 7-9 added in Feb presentation. 7 Titled: China is a growth market, driven by clean-tech and high-tech industry within China (This should time well with WSJ story); 8 Titled: The market outside of China is also growing strongly. Japans high-tech manufacturing industry is the largest non-China market; 9 Titled: Chinas maximum production p.a. will be 100kt REO after the industry is restructured and as such China will move to a net importer in 2014/15. Added
Slide 10 matches Sep Slide 15 But Environmental Impact Not Sustainable, Illegal Smuggling Not Sustainable now titled as: The environmental issues which China references in communications about restrictions in Rare Earths exports are real.
Slide 11 matches Sep Slide 16 But -- China aims to improve return on resources as well as tackle environmental performance now titled as: China aims to improve return on resources as well as stimulate Rest of World supply.
Slide 12 matches Sep Slide 8 Moly left at 20,000tpa. A challenge?
Slide 13 matches Sep Slide 9 and Slide 14, But 2014 supply total reduced to 156, 800tpa Based on China Ionic Clay Regions reduction from 30,000tpa to 4,000tpa (Note: Ionic Clay slide added to Feb 2011 presentation). Moly left at 20,000tpa. A challenge?
Slide 14 matches Sep Slide 10 with update to Mt. Weld price to $80.40 and outgoing shortage is widened. A clear challenge to 2013-2014 oversupply analysts that see price reductions once non-Chinese supply comes on.
Slide 15 matches Sep Slide 17 But Frontier, Molycorp and Lynas Kangankunde show notable development progress while all of the projects show increased value based on increased REE prices. Another indication Lynas sees current prices as sustainable through at least medium term.
Slide 16 matches Sep Slide 18 But options go from 77m strike range .16 c- $1.15 TO 85m strike range .11c -$1.60.; market cap goes from A$2.2 bn as at 13 Sep 2010 TO A$3.0bn as at 8 Feb 2011; Cash reduces from A$405m as at 30 June 2010 TO A$272m as at 31 Dec 2010.
Slide 17 matches Sep Slide 19 But Mount Weld changed from commissioned in Jan 2011 TO first ore into plant due March 2011; and LAMP changed from due to be commissioned in July-Sep 2011 TO commissioned by September 2011.
Slide 18 added: As At September 2010, 15% More Resources In Mount Weld; New Total Resource Of 1.4 Million Tonnes Of REO.
Slide 19 matches Sep Slide 22
Slide 20 matches Sep Slide 23
Slide 21 matches Sep Slide 24 But scheduled to be completed Dec 2010 changed to first ore March 2011 and new photo shows third story of Flotation Building Complete.
Slide 22 shows Ball mill and Flotation Cells verses Conditional Filter Press Only on Sep Slide 25 and it now has the title: Majority of pre-commissioning complete, both dry and wet commissioning underway in various sections of the plant.
Slide 23 shows Utilities and Thickener versus Con Thickener in Sep Slide 25 (large visible change from parts to a structure) and it now has the title: First Ore Into Concentration Plant Is Scheduled For March 2011.
Slide 24 matches Sep Slide 26
Slide 25 matches Sep Slide 27
Slide 26 matches Sep Slide 28
Slide 27 matches Sep Slide 29 But inserts added to the diagram to help better understand the construction photos and how they fit together.
Slide 28 Added titled 221-Primary Leaching show kilns and their positioning.
Slide 29 matches slide 32 But shows full steel frame added to prior concrete pour.
Slide 30 replaces Sep Slide 33 photo of pond concrete batch plants with new photo that shows Kilns installed at the LAMP with the title: First feed to kiln at the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) is scheduled for Q3 2011.
Slide 31 matches slide 30
Slide 32 matches Sep Slide 34 But Four Supply Contracts And Two Letters Of Intent Signed changed to Six Supply Contracts And Two Letters Of Intent Signed Also Slide title changed from Six customer agreements have been signed TO Eight customer agreements have been signed; Strategic Alliance with Sojitz to provide stable supply to Japanese customers AND Box 1 added: Strategic Alliance with Sojitz Minimum of 8,500t (+/-500t) of product distributed into Japan market; Box 2 added: 7th Customer Agreement Supply Contract Multi -year contract Product from Phase I; Box 3 Added: 8th Customer Agreement Supply Contract Long term contract Product from Phase I & II.
Slide 34 Titled Summary of estimated capital and operating costs to fund Phase 1 of the Rare Earths Project replaces Sep Slide 36 Lynas finances are in good shape as at the end of August 2010 Headroom down to A$21.8mm.
Sep Slide 35 Operational expenses are dominated by reagent and energy costs. Deleted. Clearly deemphasizes Molys new technologies designed to recycle reagents and have two power sources.
Slide 35 matches Slide 37 But we intend to double our production by early 2013 has changed to we will double this production in 2012.
Slide 36 matches Sep Slide 38
Sep Slide 39-46 dropped. 39 titled: Appendix; 40 Titled: New generation, >3MW, wind turbines are using permanent magnet turbines; 41 Titled: The forecast growth of hybrids is a competing application for supply of magnets; 42 Titled: Lighting is the largest of the phosphor markets, but all are forecast to grow strongly; 43 Titled: It Is Not About Size Of Resource, It Is About Getting Into Production; 44 Titled: The Current Mining Operation At Mount Weld Is Within The Central Zone Pit; 45 Titled: Mount Weld current pit floor is 51m below surface, the mine plan pit floor is another 36m down; 46 matches Slide 36 Deleted.
LYC Price at posting:
$1.86 Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)