Thank you for your response. JD. It's nice to be challenged with substance rather than substanceless abuse.
JL, these numbers are wrong.
I stand by my figures. They show the absolute amount of funding required to satisfy the current Finance Package. I have averaged them over the total payback period to give an idea of a per annum amount. Averages about $77 million per year.
For the 2029 facility, interest is capitalised until 2026 and then amortised until maturity leaving a balloon of $88M. Same with Asset facilty, balloon of $39M. The interest cap period aligns to construction timeframes so by the time amortisation commences, revenue should be flowing.Agree totally.
By the time peak debt is reached, revenue receipts would be coming from Walyering, Peaker, and West Eregulla. If you question these facilities, you are basically saying the credit team at Macquarie have no idea what they are doing. My view is that these debt levels are very conservative and would be serviceable from any two of the three projects. Then there is the potential of OH. Agree that time overruns are possible but that's the MD's job to have a contingency/cash reserve in place by late 2026 which is when amortisation commences.
Now here is where we part company.
You have articulated the perfect scenario. It just won't happen.
I would respectfully have to say, that if you believe this, "You are dreaming".
The following is a few things to consider.
In the March quarter Appendix 5B, I expect to see a Total Financing Facility of $162 (73+40+49) million.
The Peaking Plant -
Originally, on 24 June 2024, the Average Capacity Factor was 18.8%.
Now, on 28 Nov 2024, they have bumped up the Average Capacity Factor to 30.0%.
This now, with the stroke of a pen, gives an annual return of approximately $50 million and an IRR of 27%. Can you believe that?
It might make their figures look better, but if they start playing fast and loose with these capacity factors, coupled to what else the grid might demand of them in times of crisis, the life of the plant will be vastly reduced.
It's a fully integrated 85 MWpeaking gas power plant touted as something special, but without a gas supply backup it fails in the reliability stakes.
In the current scheme of things, ithe Peaking Plant is moving into the unknown. Very risky.
Walyering
Where is the interconnect?
When commissioned (soon according to another Poster) have they got "all their ducts lined up" as the saying goes?
When commissioning is complete, will it be full-on 40 T/J/day, or will it be coughing and spluttering at some reduced flow, or not at all?At this stage, output is completely unknown to shareholders. Another risk.
Macquarie are not fools. Where necessary they will have every risky area well and truly secured.
Note how they have been more lenient towards borrowings for Peaking Plant asset procurement compared to operations.
West Erregulla
Well, what can I say.
Where is the JV status and details. More than a year in the making, I think.
Where is the FID.
JD, STX is in a right mess at the moment. It is directionless, relying simply on its own momentum.
It will limp from quarter to quarter waiting for someone of something to take control and sort it out.
Just my thoughts for what they are worth. What say you folks? J L.
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