I think when the DFS is released a lot of us will have a field day playing with figures and doing similar things to this; be it comparing resource, mines, costs, or forecasting figures, projects, assets.
But this so far is the best comparison i have seen between the 2 companies, and from where I'm standing everything looks similar, except for the huge difference in market cap (given that FMG is already a producer, its stands to reason).
I noticed the cost figures were quoted in US$, there was huge exchange rate discreprancy back then (AU v US) though wouldn't make a whole lot of difference to OPEX costs, but CAPEX would cost another 300-400m (compared to the $AU currently sitting on par with the US if not stronger).
Another thing about the CAPEX costs (i'm not too familiar with FMGs early days, or current CAPEX) But FMG did raise capital of a few billion last year for a 'rapid growth strategy', the question is, Was the 45mtpa start up the capacity of the infrastructure and for them to ramp up now, they needed to spend so much more to do so? With my understanding of SDL CAPEX for infrastructure it will have a much larger capacity then that of the 35mtpa planned start up, allowing ramp up for little cost?
How will the PFS of stage 2 (low grade ore production) fit in with the comparison - did FMG have something similar (are they only currently producing DSO?).
Also im trying to get my head around the CAPEX per tonne per year theory. -How is this worked out, surely you would use the life of the mine to make such a calculation? as its "per year"
The assumption you have used is CAPEX 3300m divided by tpa 35m = $94 per tone. Using the figure of $94 CAPEX(or $96 as per table) + $19 OPEX you will get a TOTAL cost per tonne of $113.
What does $113 mean? -> $113 is the price iorn ore should be at if we want to pay back the whole project in 1 year. Anything over $113 we make a profit ontop of payback of CAPEX.
Anything under, means our payback period is more than a year (its already estimated at 4).
Yea good job, sorry my post wasn't as full of information as it was asking questions.
SDL Price at posting:
50.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held