Forwarded this email?Subscribe herefor more MP Materials: Ruined by Tariffs; White House RE Second Guessing; Saudi Arabia's Green Horses; RE Magnets: Where is the Data?; Unusual NdFeB Project in Baotou; Denial of Gravity: Solvay & Carester; Rare Earth 18 April 2025 #173 Apr 18 READ IN APP Another chapter in the tariff drama The U.S. administration, true to Wild-Westshoot first, ask questions later,applied a maximum possible punishment for failed trade negotiations before any negotiations have even taken place. In terms of trade this is a nuclear first strike. For the current 90 days it is largely limited to China, while U.S. import cost rise 10% flat for all other countries -except for the U.S. long-term arch enemy: Russia. As in a nuclear war, also in terms of tradeRand Corporation’s “MAD”applies here:MutuallyAssuredDestruction. It seems to be slowly dawning on politicians in the U.S. what destructive forces the current U.S. administration has unleashed on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. Capitol Hill BBQ Trade Representative Greer tried hard to defend the indefensible on Capitol Hill, and we sat through the entire length of the relentless bipartisan grilling of Greer by both houses. It appears that Greer is of good character and one could reasonably expect him to resign. But that would probably end his career, as neither of the two flavours of the U.S. political system would ever forgive him. The exception list Looking at the items on the“reciprocal” tariff exception listit would appear that the U.S. want what China no longer wants to give to U.S. defense industrues. In terms of rare earth the“reciprocal” tariff listcontains this: It is not only rare earth, rare metals are also on the list. For example: RE magnets not on the exclusion list Notably absent from the reciprocal tariff list are rare earth permanent magnets and thereby these are subject to trade war tariffs. While in general a step in the right direction, it is excessive and destructive to U.S. domestic industry, as there is absolutely no chance at all to replace 7,445 t (2024) of rare earth permanent magnets from China by domestic production in the near or medium term. More impact questions A global news network asked us, what impact we would expect on U.S. industry from China potentially withholding all rare earth dual-use products. We simply could not visualise a wholesale embargo for its sheer magnitude of impact. U.S. defense contractors dead in the water However, China has warned before that it does not wish to aid the production of weapons that can threaten China. It has put a number of U.S. defense contractors on itsdo-no-businessentity list. Export licenses for product destined to other U.S. defense contractors are also not going to happen. Different from the current U.S. administration changing course according to the direction the wind is blowing, China's dual-use measures are edged in stone and no trade negotiation is going to make them go away. The U.S. defense industry now must develop its own rare earth resources. Capability for production of the default defense magnet exists, samarium-cobalt. But the samarium for U.S. defense contractors has just gone missing. In terms of NdFeB magnets, defense consumption of which still is rather low but foreseeably substantially increasing, all hopes must be pinned on the eVAC project, the only one with the sophistication and know-how required for this mission-critical task. One must keep in mind, that VAC are substantially China-dependent not only on heavy rare earth metals(even if it is Chinese rare earths processed in the UK),but also for the rest of its operations, incl. the JV with China’s so-far biggest NdFeB manufacturer. Hectic activity in the White House It probably just dawned on the current U.S. administration what afabulous complete pig’s breakfastit has just served-up.

More in the whole article, basically it's chaos from my take on this.

Anyone see it differently?