General discussion, page-286

Apart from the fact that the SP did go down on a very low volume, I'm done trying to figure out SP theories.

What I'd rather do is discuss the issues, in particular, the dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) problem that really gets mentioned.

China which has a near-monopoly has recently put new restrictions onto 7 of 17 REEs; samarium, gadolinium, terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), lutetium, scandium, and yttrium.What is most interesting is that China haven't restricted Neodymium and Praseodymium (NdPr). Why?

My theory is that they don't need to. Ex-China made magnets are crippled, unreliable and therefore useless without a bit of Dy and Tb in its material make up.

All hard rock projects economically base their modelling on producing NdPr oxide over Tb and Dy oxides because its more economical for their cost-intensive projects. However, the fact is that Nd, Pr, Dy and Tb accounts for 94%* of the total rare earth basket price.Based on current prices the breakdown value of each element would approximately be as follows:

• NdPr Oxide: 30% of the 94%
• Dy Oxide: 30% of the 94%
• Tb Oxide: 25% of the 94%
• SEG Concentrate (samarium, europium, gadolinium): 15% of the 94%

So, the Dy and Tb part of the equation is 55%. More than half of market value!

If NdPr Oxides makes up only 30% of the market value and there are a number of NdPr (hard rock) projects coming online in the next few year or so, then its highly likely that NdPr prices will remain stable.

But China supplies almost 100% of Tb and Dy. So, the problem is where is the exChina supply coming from that are now on export restrictions?Furthermore, if you add SEG into the mix, the market value is approximately 65-70%.

Therefore, any project economics that relies exclusively on supplying NdPr which is mostly hard rock projects, is going to be at an economic disadvantage. Put simply, they don't solve the terbium and dysprosium problem.

On the other hand, ionic clay projects like Koppamurra has a chance to restore some market balance with minimal outlay.

All IMO, DYOR, GLTA(patient)H

* Note of caution: The actual prices and breakdowns of 94% are dynamic and do change frequently (up and down). The remaining 6% of the basket would be contributed by the other 13 REEs. IMO, as more projects come on line, these remaining REEs are likely to be in oversupply as a bi-product of achieving the higher value oxides into your basket mix.