How about this analysis Magwheels5......
I think the company will have over 10 times the sales receipts in the next quarterly. High rate of certainty on this one.
I think the sales analyst forecast posted in this thread that references Japan sales is fundamentally floored, because it was publically announced that 75% of sales were NEW SCRIPT SALES. That means the revenue did not come from 50,000 people renewing 24 scripts, it came from NEW Japanese CUSTOMERS.
BOT is worth what people are willing to pay for it ( said nobody ever ) , and generally waiting for a company to realize it's maximum earning potential, and then making an offer 10 times the yearly sales is going to be an extremely costly exercise for an established pharma, and one which they generally do not do very often. The more numerous and successful takeovers have target the startup when sales and performance is somewhat assured, but maximum earning potential is not yet reached. They don't want to pay 20 or 30 billion for a company after it has pushed all 5 of it's drugs to market, if they can pay 5 Billion for one drug and getting the rest to market themselves that might cost an additional 1-2 Billion.
Now lets take Japan year 3 and ignore the 24 subsctiption idea which doesn't add up from a year on year growth perspective, and focus on the NEW CUSTOMERS.
The Japanese script due to regulations is actually only for two weeks, so take the 350,000 script number, divide by two to convert it to months so we are talking apples to apples. = 175,000 months supply sold in year 3. ( For BOT sitting at around $1000 USD a month, that is $273 Million AUD in sales. )
BUT here is the diamond in the rough :
75% of the 175,000 japanese month sales were new scripts as disclosed by botanics and by their partner, meaning only 25% were return customers.
So we could assume the 25% are taking the product long term.
25% of 175,000 month scripts is 43,750 months' supply, divide by 12 gives 3,646 customers who purchased 12 scripts in year 3. plus the 75% new.
Botanics just announced in March they had just over 3 million sales for March, and have a refill rate currently at 100%.3 million, divide by 1,000 per month gives 3,000 customers that are refilling at 100%.
In other words, in month 2 of the launch, Botanics appear to allready have surpassed the Japanese year 3 penetration rate for return customers.Now we think the refill rate won't stay at 100% for ever ( but it does for some drugs and some conditions ).
But..... We also know it currently is at 100%, and that includes users who have been using it for 5 months, so the evidence is that it is at 100%.
In Japan, the average refill is just 1 months supply total ( 1 refill ) , where as the USA it's 2 for this type of product.
That meann potentially in Japan, 175,000 ( month - including 1 refill ) x 75% = 131,250 new patients.
In USA where the refil rate currently is 100%, 131,250 patients would represent 1.57 million months' supply or 1.57 Billion USD in sales just from that group.
WHY the difference
We cannot assume the USA refill rate is going to drop as low as to match the Japanese refill rate - which with only 3,646 long term users in a year with an estimated 100,000 new users is only 3.6%.
Based on the evidence so far, the Botanix refill rate is a lot higher than the Japanese year 3 refill rate.
That means establishing 100,000 customers who are re-filling is going to happen a lot faster in USA than it would in Japan ( it has not happened in Japan yet )
That means the script sales / customer numbers to expect for Botanix is a lot higher than in Japan , not only because the population is 3x, but because the population is refilling their scripts. That could be for a number of reasons including severity of the disease, the comfort of mail out prescriptions, the comfort of diagnosis at home through telehealth, the insurance coverage, the auto mail out of renewals, or all of the above.
Bottom line, there is not much evidence to the contrary that this won't be doing over a Billion in sales in the next few years, and that is by no means a cap..... so tell me again if I were a big pharma looking for a parnter, one with an online diagnosis, delivery, refill rate near 100% and advertising platform..... why I wouldn't pay 5B knowing after 7 years the company has well and truly paid itself off with this single drug alone, not considering any other sales or item in the BOT pipeline, and not considering the use of the platform to increase sales for the takeover companies existing drug portfolio?
I may even have underestimated some of those figures, I think if the company continues to report the sales ramp APR - JUN and the refill rate, it will speak for itself. If refill rate drops to 4% from 100% I will concede, 5 Billion is less likely. If it stays up there it simply means 12x the sales for the same number of patients, and 1 Billion in sales only requires 100,000 patients refilling ( or 1% of the market )... Instead of 1.2 million patients not refilling ( 12% of the market ) for the same sales figures.
That is why I think BOT will be in it's takeover prime come Jul / Aug just after the refill rate, and patient number and platform success is confirmed. This is what Vinnie does. Take a startup, make it profitable, and sell it for 5Billion plus. It's his track record, I think all the directors would be happy with a massive takeover given how invested they are in the company. And if the takeover is not successfull but the offer is made public, then we will still benefit on the Share Price rocket.
You are dreaming if you can't see that happening at all. Maybe you should re-assess your dream in July, I will be.
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