Hi Blase,
I agree that Morocco, from what I have studied, is more stable than most, but that does not make them immune from an uprising, as is displayed by the planned 20 Feb protest in Morocco for the same reasons that the Egyptians revolted - high unemployment, rising costs of living, unreasonable levels of poverty especially relative to the wealth & living standards of the elite etc etc. There are also major issues with Morocco's annexation of Western Sahara & that makes the Sahrawi (aka Saharawi) as well as the Frente Polisario a real wild-card, particularly if the military are drawn back to Morocco proper to contend with any unrest leaving them a bit thin on the ground is Western Sahara. At the same time it cannot be taken for granted that Morocco will always have control of Western Sahara. It has been the subject of UN intervention for years & attempted referendum in respect to self determination or otherwise. All this considered I would suggest they are definately a candidate for a revolt by the students & the many other down-trodden in Morocco, as well as in respect to the other issues Western Sahara. Particularly now given the apparent success overnight in Egypt, which like Morocco has a very strong armed force so Egypt was a greater litmus test than Tunisia for the Moroccan. I guess time will tell.
As for your suggestion that MAK is somehow relying on a price spike/bubble in RP to be successful. Well that is simply ridiculous and clearly unjustified. MAK is getting on with the job of creating a vertically integrated global fert Co and our progress is testament to that, and further anns over the next number of weeks, no doubt, will further verify their progress in this regard. The rising prices of phosphate products has primarily been in direct response to increased demand due to higher food prices & therefore higher plantings as well as the catch-up in replenishing soil nutrients after under-application due to GFC & credit squeeze etc. We have a global food crisis unfolding and that is good for the fert industry & ag-sector in general. Just ask BHP & RIO who are trying to increase their exposure, let alone POT & MOS in Nth America.
That said, we will also happily take any increase in RP prices due to supply issues as a result of Nth African/Middle Eastern unrest, just like REE Co.s benefitted from the China / Japan issue which delivered a supply risk of REEs. If it helps increase our SP at a time where we are equity raising, then it helps increase what the investors/partners will pay for 50% of the company.
In short I disagree with the majority of your post and for good reasons, as set out above, and I appreciate (if not enjoy) the opportunity to debate such.
Cheers
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