Wow, not good. Receipts actually came in worse than my "minimal growth" prediction, with a decline for the third straight quarter. Looks like the trade receivables on the half yearly report balance sheet was a decent indicator after all.
Nice to see AF has pivoted from comparing against the pcp revenue to YTD revenue of the pcp, now that the pcp also includes the bought revenues from the Imbio transaction. He's really squeezing all the juice out that excuse that he can for the unsuspecting sharehodlers who might not be looking at the details closely. Wonder what his next trick will be when the YTD receipts catch up. He's moving quite quickly from just being a bit disingenuous to a full on sn4ke 0il salesman at this rate.
On operating costs, a $6.5m annual reduction ($1.625m quarterly) reduction shows they are focused on this area, but it’snot enough when you haven’t had meaningful growth in receipts for 5quarters and your operating costs are circa $35m a year. Board should really start to look at their own salaries if they are serious about it.
The cash position is not good and doesn't look like they raised nearly as much as they needed. While the $5m in government grants to come in this quarter will help, I expect they'll be skirting close to $10m by the end of the quarter based on recent burn rates and taking into account $5m grant and reduced OPEX. That means another CR is just around the corner. Relying on exercising options to raise capital is an extremely risky move, let alone when you have stated that the conditions for the options (CT:VQ approval) are not likely to be satisfied until September at least. This is even more risky when shareholders have had their fingers burned on more than one occasion. There's only so many times you can cry wolf, so it'll take more than the FDA approval being announced to put a rocket under the share price. Interestingly they've already hinted that another CR is coming.All in all, I feel vindicated so far in my decision to tag out and sit on the sidelines for now. I expect minimal growth in receipts for next quarter given it will be the March quarter sales that land in the bank account (since they operate on 90day payment terms), so there won't be much, if anything, to show of the Phillips partnership. Maybe they'll crack $1.3m in receipts, AF did mention that March was their highest ever month for sales at least. It will certainly be an interesting 6 months coming up.
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Ann: Quarterly Activity Report and Appendix 4C for Q3 FY2025, page-35
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