I actually think it may be more than 900m by the time larger electrolyte facilities are built. The current one cost $7m for a 33MWh annual capacity.
If AVL go down the Engineering-Procurement-Construction route (i.e. selling batteries)Given the addressable market is set to be 7GWh of BESS batteries a year, I would think if we had 3 years of full capacity (around 1.2 GWh per annum like you say) contracted, that would give investors/financiers the confidence that we would be able to win other projects at a later date.
If we say 1.2b, I think a potential funding mix could be 25% equity finance (cap raise), 25% downpayments on batteries (offtake), 25% debt finance (commercial loans with interest) and 25% government support (ARENA, NAIF, Modern manufacturing grants etc., mix of loans and grants) so each funding type providing 300m.
Realistically the whole paypack period worth of batteries (maybe 6-7 years) won't be signed up by FID. There is some inherent risk that will be priced in to the equity and debt finance.
If, like lithium BESS, a lot of these end up being owned by AVL (build-own-operate rather than EPC), we will have to cap raise more, however this turns it into a simpler funding model where capital is provided, with revenue (energy arbitrage profits) coming in a predictable pattern in the future. This funding model would be similar to any other dig-and-ship-miner i.e. the old AVL/TMT plan of exporting 11,000tpa.
I think it may end up being 70% BOO and 30% EPC. This would be in line with current 4hr lithium BESS facilities that all industry players are familiar with.
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