MEM (ASX) MEM Discussion

Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

In responding to the naysayers.....no one is claiming that we are currently in a strong uptrend..

The thesis is clear....and the thesis is that there are Fundamental and Technical indications that we may break out of the long term downtrend and/or enter into a new phase of sustained uptrend. Hence, the thesis carries a bullish outlook.

Here is the case for that thesis via both fundamental and technical considerations:

Fundamental Case
MEM is transitioning from a product development company to product commercialisation company.....implied in that transition is a transition from past high risk, high cost activities (product R&D).....to the current position of moderate risk, high reward activities (i.e commercial roll-out agreements).

MEM's flagship product is a proven winner, declared "best in class" in a recent clinical trial and displaying "clear competitive advantages in performance, quality and operating costs".

MARKET OPPORTUNITY - Heranova China: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/78678070/single & https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/78683755/single

MARKET OPPORTUNITY - Lab Androscience, Brazil: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/78693773/single

MARKET OPPORTUNITY - Vitrolife, Japan:

MARKET OPPORTUNITY - Panacea, Dubai UAE: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/78761926/single

MARKET OPPORTUNITY - Potential M&A: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/78716427/single & https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/78716744/single

MARKET OPPORTUNITY - Potential New Deals: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/78877369/single & https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/78877912/single

These are just some examples of current market opportunities. There are more which i have not listed, like the IVF animal sector, or the fact that we have distribution agreements with Vitrolife which also cover Canada and NZ.

ARTICLE ON MEM's CURRENT STATUS: https://www.techinvest.online/news/memphasys-fertility-play-gains-momentum-with-1275m-raise-felix-ready-to-go-forth-and-multiply

Once again this is just a short summary of fundamental opportunities on the horizon.

Technical Case

As the Fundamentals show a transition from R&D to commercialisation, so do the Technical indicators.

A double bottom is a reversal pattern. On the MEM weekly chart, a clear double bottom is in formation.

We also have a significant increase in trading volume in recent weeks.

If we zoom out on the weekly chart, we see that the down trend has slowed, a base is forming and trading volume has significantly increased.

we also have a bullish divergence forming.

Next, the technical indicators will reflect the same sentiment as the Fundamental Case above, and as the chart patterns within the chart.

The Weekly Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is in a clear uptrend over time and the RSI moving average has just recently broken the RSI 50 mark.

We have now dipped below RSI 50, but a pull back is often normal market structure before the uptrend resumes.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the weekly is showing weakening bearish momentum...........and a potential shift to a new bullish trend is developing as it approaches to the zero line. We have currently dipped below the zero line, but a pull back is often normal market structure before the uptrend resumes.

The trend has developed over notable time, and IMO is likely to continue.

I reiterate that the thesis is that there are Fundamental and Technical indications that we may break out of the long term downtrend and/or enter into a new phase of sustained uptrend.

Of course there are no guarantees....and no one can predict the future, but i am presenting my opinion/analysis on the current state of affairs, and i stand by that thesis.

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1. Long-Term Downtrend Is Intact. The weekly chart clearly shows that MEM is still in a prolonged, unbroken downtrend. Despite the recent stabilisation in price, the asset continues to make lower highs and lower lows. The downtrend line from early 2021 remains unbroken — a fundamental condition for a reversal has not been met.

2. No Validated Double Bottom. The supposed “double bottom” has not confirmed technically. A double bottom only becomes valid after a breakout above the neckline with strong volume. MEM has shown no such breakout — price action remains confined in a tight range near all-time lows. Without a breakout, it's premature (and dangerous) to call it a reversal pattern.

3. RSI and MACD Are Weak. The RSI is below 50 again, and while there was a brief uptick, there is no sustained bullish momentum. RSI is oscillating in a bear market range (30–50), which is typically associated with downtrends.The MACD continues to hover below the zero line with flattening momentum. A true trend reversal would typically involve a bullish MACD cross above the zero line — something we haven’t seen.

4. Volume Spike ≠ Bullish Intent. The increase in volume could just as easily indicate distribution, not accumulation. Volume spikes near support without upward price movement are often signs of exit liquidity being created — not buyers stepping in for a long-term play.

5. Price Action Speaks Loudest. No matter how strong a fundamental case may appear, technical analysis is driven by what the market is actually doing, not what we hope it will do. Until the market proves strength through key level breaks, reclaiming of resistances, and higher lows/higher highs — the bias must remain bearish or at best, neutral.