The best ran company on earth. That got a custom made exemption for its product category from the tariffs. That already has full alternative supply chains up and running in India and Vietnam. That has months of inventory ready to go.
That company just told you they’re going to lose $1B per quarter from these tariffs. *And*, the CEO warned that this problem is going to get a lot worse in future quarters.
So how bad do you think it’s going to get for the average American business (and its employees)? Answer honestly.
BREAKING: The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 19.5 points in April, to -35.8, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic. This was well below expectations of -14.2 points. New orders fell 19.9 points, to -20.0, the lowest since November 2022. Companies’ outlook fell 17.6 points, to -28.3, the lowest since May 2020. Over the last 20 years, such low readings have only been seen during 2008 and 2020. Yet another sign of a manufacturing sector recession. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1918003024003313682
People don't understand how horrific Trump's tariffs on China will be to the American consumer.
~70% of all items Sold on Amazon are imported from China.
~60% of items sold at Five Below are imported from China.
~60% of items sold at Harbor Freight are imported from China.
~55% of items sold by Best Buy are imported from China.
~43% of Dollar Tree items are imported from China.
~35% of all products on Walmart Shelves are imported from China.
~30% of all products on Home Depot’s and Lowe’s shelves are imported from China.
..Meanwhile China expressed that it is evaluating US overtures to initiate talks on trade but continues to reiterate need for US to show sincerity and correct its wrongdoings by removing all unilateral tariffs.
..Meaning, there's ways to go before they will come to the table. China is having a 5 day May holiday and taking its time.
...Meanwhile, US futures continue pumping to the upside with Dow futures hitting 41k , as if there is no concern over US recession after 1st quarter of negative growth and as if the trade war is not a concern anymore.
We have entered a 'disconnect from reality' stage in the US equity market, which almost always point to a market crash months later. How high this Melt-Up would go, I dont know, but now is not the time to be short nor bull (long).
