A few posters here have commented on the slight change of messaging in the most recent interview with Coby on the matter of how much market share of the ReRam market WBT are now aiming for. There's the highest priority that they are now putting on closing new commercial deals, so they can sign up new customers and secure them against any potential competition (though there don't seem to be any right now, the nearest are ~5 years behind WBT). There's the comment from Coby about him remaining paranoid against any new tech ("only the paranoid survive"). There's also Coby's comment about the 150 deg auto qualification, and how he didn't know any other commercial ReRam qualified at that temperature. WBT have also been saying for some time that some customers want their ReRam designs to be "optimised" for their application, whereas TSMC only have "standard" versions available. Coby also responded to a question about the looming shortage of "rare earths elements", and he reminded us that WBT ReRam doesn't even use rare-earths. But though he didn't continue that discussion, it seems TSMC ReRam does use a rare-earth (Ruthenium), and a rather expensive and scarce one at that. I posted about this some months back (#
75956248). Maybe all these advantages (WBT currently being the only independent supplier of commercial grade ReRam, the 150deg qualified temperature, possibility to do optimised designs, no rare-earth elements) in WBT's ReRam will start to give it the edge over TSMC's tech. Only time will tell. But to me, it is starting to look very possible that WBT might eventually take >50% of the global ReRam market, if the commercial deals do start to cascade this year. I note too that the MST broker report of June 2024 estimated future revenues based on just a 25% market share by FY31. That 25% ceiling seems very conservative, but even with that assumption, MST forecast royalty revenues for WBT of US$426 million (A$665 million) in FY31. But that would be ~A$1.3 billion pa, if WBT did take 50% of the market share. And that would be almost all profit due to the >90% margins afforded by royalty payments. What would WBT be worth if it had an annual EBITDA of ~$A1.3 billion (and growing) ? - $$$$$$$$.
All IMHO, DYOR
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