I’ve had a look through Greatland’s April and May 2025 PR slide‑decks and, the April scheme booklet that shifts its headquarters from London to Perth. First, the scheme pulls Greatland out from under the UK Takeover Code and plants it squarely in the Australian Corporations Act.
That swap strips out a chunk of red tape—handy if you plan to pay for the next deal mostly in shares and don’t want a mandatory cash alternative hanging over your head. The booklet also pre‑approves a 2½ per‑cent “liquidity placement” once the new GRL line starts trading on 24 June, but otherwise leaves Greatland’s full 15 per‑cent ASX placement capacity untouched.
In plain English, management will have a clean 10–12 per‑cent bucket of fresh paper ready to issue the moment they feel like it. Second, the language has shifted. Earlier decks went on about “regional opportunities”; the scheme steps that up to “new investment and acquisition opportunities”.
That’s exactly the lexical creep I’ve watched companies use two or three weeks before a term‑sheet lands on a target’s desk. Third, Telfer’s spare capacity is front and centre in every slide. Two ten‑million‑tonne trains, one running below name‑plate, the other will soon be processing ore that in any other price environment would be road base.
If you own that mill the cheapest incremental ounce is the one you truck in from a shallow open pit next door, not the one you have to fully develop a block cave (is there an example of a block cave on time and under budget?)
Put those strands together and the play almost writes itself. Greatland debuts on the ASX at the end of June, runs a tiny placement to bed down Australian liquidity, then quietly creeps its Antipa stake up to just under twenty per cent through July—no bid required under Chapter 6 at that level. Sometime in August I’d expect an initial cash‑and‑scrip offer, probably worth sixty to seventy cents a share plus a bit of cash. Antipa’s board will knock that back, point to the resource drilling that should push the inventory toward four million ounces (Shaw and Partners recent estimate), and publish a toll‑treat PFS that deletes Telfer’s plant capex from their numbers. That lifts their defensible value well north of a buck.
Greatland’s balancing act is to pay enough to get a friendly scheme while keeping its balance‑sheet intact for an expensive (but yet to be disclosed) Havieron.
My best guess is they’ll come back in late September with something around a dollar‑five: Greatland shares and forty‑odd cents cash. At that split the cash cheque is manageable—about a quarter‑billion.
If that timetable’s right, the marker to watch is wording. The first time an RNS or ASX release swaps “regional opportunities” for “advanced discussions with third‑party ore sources”, the starting gun’s fired and a term‑sheet usually follows inside three weeks.
That’s my read, not saying I’m fully supportive of a takeover, will be interesting how it plays out obviously want Antipa to be in the best position for the highest value.
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This scenario would force GGP's hand into lobbing a bid at AZY imo, any softening of AZY's sp could also lead to a similar end result..
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