MEK meeka metals limited

1.79%

13.8¢

SP Projection(s), page-2

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gdavs

275 Posts.

193

08/05/25

12:05

Post #: 78966787

Originally posted by gdavs: ↑

Stage Date Scenario Target Price (AUD) Notes
1 First Gold Pour Jul-25 Low $0.20 46koz output; DCF alone supports ~$0.039/share. Market cautious but confident.
2

Mid $0.225 Commissioning risk lowers; strong FCF potential priced in.
3

High $0.250 Optimism around execution and drill results support early re-rate.
4 12 Months Post-Pour Jul-26 Low $0.300 65koz output established; DCF supports ~$0.051/share.
5

Mid $0.335 DFS confidence increases; market starts to price in upside.
6

High $0.420 Re-rate driven by consistent delivery and growing institutional interest.
7 24 Months Post-Pour Jul-27 Low $0.460 Resource upgraded; 80–100koz output in sight; DCF supports ~$0.065/share and climbing.
8

Mid $0.540 Market recognises long-life potential and scales EV/oz toward peer average.
9

High $0.640 Sustained 100koz/year production + strong sector tailwinds = full re-rate scenario.

Meeka Metals (ASX: MEK) Valuation Notes:
Fully diluted share count of 2.65 billion shares
Current gold price: $3,390 USD/oz
DFS cash flow projections
CEO's goal to scale to 80,000–100,000oz/year production from Year 3
Signs of ongoing resource expansion
Gold Price: $3,390 USD/oz (flat across all years)
AISC (AUD): ~$2,000/oz equivalent (converted from $1,946–$1,982 USD)
Year 1 Production: 46,000 oz (per DFS)
Year 2 Production: 65,000 oz (per DFS)
Year 3 Onward: Assumed 90,000 oz (midpoint of 80–100koz CEO target)
Free Cash Flow DCF (AUD per share):
Year 1: $0.039
Year 2: $0.051
Year 3: $0.065 (based on 90koz)
Peers trade at $6,000–$11,000 EV/oz; Meeka’s current EV/oz is ~$2,883
Valuation re-rate is supported by fundamentals, not hype
Revised Share Price Valuation Table (2.65B Shares, AUD)
Information Purposes only DYOR
Expand
Ps. We're all here to share and learn, so please feel free to point out any blind spots, offer corrections, or share your insights.

MEK Price at posting: 14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

8 Upvote

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(20min delay)
Last 13.8¢		Change -0.003(1.79%)		Mkt cap ! $408.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
13.5¢	14.0¢	13.5¢	$167.2K	1.207M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
51	4245276	13.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.0¢	917669	17

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
51	4245276	0.135
45	3321202	0.130
22	1337511	0.125
16	753491	0.120
5	113661	0.115

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.140	917669	17
0.145	984519	21
0.150	915663	12
0.155	1380773	15
0.160	2789487	19

Last trade - 11.37am 29/07/2025 (20 minute delay)

MEK (ASX) Chart

SP Projection(s), page-2

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	Stage	Date	Scenario	Target Price (AUD)	Notes
1	First Gold Pour	Jul-25	Low	$0.20	46koz output; DCF alone supports ~$0.039/share. Market cautious but confident.
2			Mid	$0.225	Commissioning risk lowers; strong FCF potential priced in.
3			High	$0.250	Optimism around execution and drill results support early re-rate.
4	12 Months Post-Pour	Jul-26	Low	$0.300	65koz output established; DCF supports ~$0.051/share.
5			Mid	$0.335	DFS confidence increases; market starts to price in upside.
6			High	$0.420	Re-rate driven by consistent delivery and growing institutional interest.
7	24 Months Post-Pour	Jul-27	Low	$0.460	Resource upgraded; 80–100koz output in sight; DCF supports ~$0.065/share and climbing.
8			Mid	$0.540	Market recognises long-life potential and scales EV/oz toward peer average.
9			High	$0.640	Sustained 100koz/year production + strong sector tailwinds = full re-rate scenario.

SP Projection(s), page-2

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Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 019 – Dreaming of the 9,000s

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