MEK meeka metals limited

14.8%

15.5¢

SP Projection(s), page-2

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gdavs

279 Posts.

196

08/05/25

12:05

Post #: 78966787

Originally posted by gdavs: ↑

Stage Date Scenario Target Price (AUD) Notes
1 First Gold Pour Jul-25 Low $0.20 46koz output; DCF alone supports ~$0.039/share. Market cautious but confident.
2

Mid $0.225 Commissioning risk lowers; strong FCF potential priced in.
3

High $0.250 Optimism around execution and drill results support early re-rate.
4 12 Months Post-Pour Jul-26 Low $0.300 65koz output established; DCF supports ~$0.051/share.
5

Mid $0.335 DFS confidence increases; market starts to price in upside.
6

High $0.420 Re-rate driven by consistent delivery and growing institutional interest.
7 24 Months Post-Pour Jul-27 Low $0.460 Resource upgraded; 80–100koz output in sight; DCF supports ~$0.065/share and climbing.
8

Mid $0.540 Market recognises long-life potential and scales EV/oz toward peer average.
9

High $0.640 Sustained 100koz/year production + strong sector tailwinds = full re-rate scenario.

Meeka Metals (ASX: MEK) Valuation Notes:
Fully diluted share count of 2.65 billion shares
Current gold price: $3,390 USD/oz
DFS cash flow projections
CEO's goal to scale to 80,000–100,000oz/year production from Year 3
Signs of ongoing resource expansion
Gold Price: $3,390 USD/oz (flat across all years)
AISC (AUD): ~$2,000/oz equivalent (converted from $1,946–$1,982 USD)
Year 1 Production: 46,000 oz (per DFS)
Year 2 Production: 65,000 oz (per DFS)
Year 3 Onward: Assumed 90,000 oz (midpoint of 80–100koz CEO target)
Free Cash Flow DCF (AUD per share):
Year 1: $0.039
Year 2: $0.051
Year 3: $0.065 (based on 90koz)
Peers trade at $6,000–$11,000 EV/oz; Meeka’s current EV/oz is ~$2,883
Valuation re-rate is supported by fundamentals, not hype
Revised Share Price Valuation Table (2.65B Shares, AUD)
Information Purposes only DYOR
Expand
Ps. We're all here to share and learn, so please feel free to point out any blind spots, offer corrections, or share your insights.

MEK Price at posting: 14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

8 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 15.5¢		Change 0.020(14.8%)		Mkt cap ! $451.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
14.0¢	15.5¢	14.0¢	$3.382M	22.47M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	2867000	15.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
15.5¢	3330045	38

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	2837000	0.150
9	1173795	0.145
15	2289933	0.140
60	4889008	0.135
38	2365028	0.130

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.155	2531851	30
0.160	3438129	23
0.165	2022249	19
0.170	845675	13
0.175	1126019	4

Last trade - 16.10pm 08/08/2025 (20 minute delay)

MEK (ASX) Chart

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	Stage	Date	Scenario	Target Price (AUD)	Notes
1	First Gold Pour	Jul-25	Low	$0.20	46koz output; DCF alone supports ~$0.039/share. Market cautious but confident.
2			Mid	$0.225	Commissioning risk lowers; strong FCF potential priced in.
3			High	$0.250	Optimism around execution and drill results support early re-rate.
4	12 Months Post-Pour	Jul-26	Low	$0.300	65koz output established; DCF supports ~$0.051/share.
5			Mid	$0.335	DFS confidence increases; market starts to price in upside.
6			High	$0.420	Re-rate driven by consistent delivery and growing institutional interest.
7	24 Months Post-Pour	Jul-27	Low	$0.460	Resource upgraded; 80–100koz output in sight; DCF supports ~$0.065/share and climbing.
8			Mid	$0.540	Market recognises long-life potential and scales EV/oz toward peer average.
9			High	$0.640	Sustained 100koz/year production + strong sector tailwinds = full re-rate scenario.

SP Projection(s), page-2

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