...Main St is "sold" on Trump tariffs, Wall St is not.
...Retailers are gambling in this final Melt Up because they are doing it for a living. They have to be in it to win it. And for them there is no better time to do it, after the market decline, and each day the market holds up, further emboldens them.
...too often retailers experience anchoring bias- they look at the peak of 2025 and anchored their belief we will get there. And of course, if there are enough market participants thinking likewise, we might just do so whether warranted or not.
This is absolutely incredible:
Individual investors have been net buyers of equities for 21 consecutive weeks, the longest streak on record, according to BofA.
This is more than DOUBLE the previous records seen in 2021 and 2022.
Over the last 4 weeks, BofA’s private clients have purchased a record $2 BILLION of equities. On the other hand, hedge funds have sold a record ~$1.5 billion. At the same time, BofA’s institutional clients have dumped ~$2.7 billion, the second-largest amount in history.
This is a much larger divergence between retail and institutional investors than during the 2022 bear market.
The Main Street and Wall Street divide is massive.
Today after his UK "deal", Trump told gamblers to buy stocks now ahead of the China talks this weekend. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-07/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates… I think best case scenario is a reduction in tariffs back to the 54% Liberation Day escalation level which China opposed the first time around. However, there is no way this trade war ends this weekend.
Suffice to say, both bulls and bears now have Monday risk. But if Trump has another temper tantrum, the market will explode.
...The Dow went up as much as +660pts intraday, only to close +254pts.
...Does the market care as much, or it has baked in that the tariffs would be nothingburger at the end of it.
BREAKING: US weighs plan to decrease Chinese tariffs to as low as 50%, down from 145%, as soon as next week, per NYP https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1920565869412794535
