Many uranium miners have contracted delivery commitments, but a significant number are unlikely to have enough supply to meet those contracts due to persistent production shortfalls and structural supply issues. Most established mines are operating below their stated capacities, and new projects face long development timelines and financing challenges57. For example, even top producers like Cigar Lake and Kazatomprom are running 10–25% below capacity, and restarts such as MacArthur River and Honeymoon are producing far less than targeted5.
While some miners, like Ur-Energy, are close to meeting their 2025 delivery commitments, they still face tight margins and rely on inventory to bridge gaps6. Industry-wide, the uranium market is entering a period where production is consistently below global reactor requirements, and commercial inventories are rapidly shrinking8. This means many miners with contracted deliveries are at risk of being unable to fulfill all obligations unless new supply comes online or prices rise enough to incentivize new production4578.
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