Refined Assumptions
1.Capital Expenditure & Debt
Capex: Expected to reduce significantly after a peak investment phase (retooling, automation, sustainability).
FY23 Capex: ~$145M
Forward Capex: Management guides a material reduction toward$80M–$90M p.a.
Free Cash Flow (FCF): Likely to improve materially — higher earnings + lower capex = more cash to repay debt or return to shareholders.
Debt Reduction Potential: FY24 net debt ~$663M, with scope to reduce by ~$100M+ over 12–24 months if FCF strengthens.
2.Implied Shareholder Value Uplift
If we assume:
With gearing declining and operating leverage improving, therisk profile of cash flows improves, which justifies a higherEV/EBITDA multipleandequity multiple.
3.Updated Valuation Ranges
a.EV/EBITDA Valuation (Revised)
| Scenario | EV/EBITDA | EBITDA | EV | Net Debt | Equity Value | Share Price (342M shares) |
|---|
| 1 | Conservative | 6.0x | $270M | $1.62B | $663M | $957M | $2.80 |
|---|
| 2 | Moderate/Base | 6.5x | $270M | $1.76B | $663M | $1.10B | $3.22 |
|---|
| 3 | Aggressive | 7.0x | $270M | $1.89B | $663M | $1.23B | $3.59 |
|---|
4.Control Premium Approach (Revised)
Last public offer was$0.84/share. Applying arevised control premium of 40–50%, considering operational tailwinds and FCF outlook:
But these are still backward-looking. Based on forward multiples and improved FCF profile, those premiums understate fair value.
Revised Fair 100% Control Valuation
Taking all into account (lower capex, deleveraging, forward EBITDA, strategic control, limited public float), areasonable acquisition rangeshould be:
$2.75 – $3.25 per share
This would value the company at:
~$950M–$1.1Bin equity value
A forwardEV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5–7x, aligned with peers in packaging/logistics with improving capital intensity
Reflects optionality from future dividend reinstatement or capital returns
