the buyback is back, page-43

The BB has been the reason for the 30-40% rise this year. Some great progress done by TS, but minimal SP impact compared to that. What happens when it isn?t present? A drop yes, but not before it was a bit closer to being finished. Practically no buyback had occurred over the last week or so as support has been beyond its need. Someone on that respect dropped the ball, hence the panic today. Pure and simple and so obvious ? but I am not perfect so absolutely stand to be corrected. You think that has been fairies? lol

1. The BB disappeared today. There was only about 3m in total buying today up until lunch. This has routinely been approx 6-8m on the buy side with high 100 000's to 1m's staggered up until the BB limit price...Some days of late the traders have pushed beyond the BB limit, hence up until today only very small BB notices.
2. Some selling lunch pushed the price down to 71c odd.
3. Usually the BB would support the price and hold it, even chuck in a 500k but to take out the upper resistance.
4. Because there was not real BB presence, the sellers pushed it down to sub 70c...then the buy depth below was very thin. I think this is when some of the 100k sellers moved in and pushed it further.
5. Some stops hit. If you have your stop set with higher vol that available at that price, then you get what the trader gets you...i.e. lower
6. This triggers more stops, adding to the now decent drop..
7. Panic starts setting in and margin holders exiting to cover themselves and a real spike down occurs. Very thin on the buy and sell depths.
8. A bit of a rally off the 200day SMA...retraces to mid 60's
9. The first big buyer steps in with a 500k @ 66c..Before this, there are very thin buyers and therefore no buying up as the sell side quite thin also.
10. This 500k @ 66c gives base support then multiple 100k buy orders start filling up above 66c giving support adding to the overall buy depth in the 6m range again...then a retrace up to 70c occurs. By now there are a few large 100k buy lots staggered a bit up to about 69c
11. Some selling into these large lots, some more added now inc some balancing the price at the 68-70c level.
12. Sell depth significantly higher so upper resistance set now.

Basically, the BB disappeared today, causing the sell off / stop triggers...Yes selling occurred into the initial fall, but lack of BB presence caused the sell off...It was so evident by the lack of depth. Then, panic.

Anyone who held when the Rudd tax occurred, exactly the same pattern when it had a huge dip also. No BB then though to push the SP up 40%.

The BB had 14m or about 3% of stock on offer remaining. I don't think all of this has gone yet, but could see about 5-6m roughly. Most traded in the last couple of hours of the market day. They relieved some overbought pressure today but I think confidence has been pretty badly hit now. So, will be interesting to watch from here.

Good luck all