Yatchy have a listen to Marc's comments on 'The Hoe Truth' from the RRS meeting in March this year, there are some great metrics explained.
https://youtu.be/LzKtjjdW9sk
Around the 13 minute section Marc talks about the forthcoming PFS and how he would expect a re-rating based on, say, 1.5m NPV at 30 to 40%... so with 40% we have a MC of 600m which is a SP in the 40s.
In another interview he also mentioned any takeover offer would have to be around the 60% mark of the above so in the 60s.
We are obviously pushing to production so the metric here that got my attention is about 15 minutes into the podcast: Marc thinks he can push the 2.5mt/pa plant to 3mt (due to the advantageous metallurgy) and has a life of project cost of $50/t with revenue of $170/t for the first 7.5 Years: so that generates a profit of $360m per annum for the first 7.5 years, or at today's GP of 5K more like $450-500m per annum!!!
So my position as a VERY VERY long time holder is: - Yes, SP should be ~40s now - Yes, T/O in the 60's is a risk - BUT getting a 20c dividend for the next 7 years is my preference.
AW.
AAR Price at posting:
15.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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