listen i've proven you wrong countless times here already, im not going to bother responding again unless you can at least admit that. you keep pivoting and sound like a desperate person trying to justify their position.
the US -$80 -100 m per quarter figure is anchored in the companies own filings and the ratings models, not guesswork (fitch says -400m at spot) (wicet 23m per q fixed, curragh dragline 7m fixed, incremental costs 145/t, royalties and freight 7/t)
even with a drier June quarter the maths still lands around US -$80 m fcf unless coal lifts > US $210/t.
heres the long side straight from my notes, this is would you would buy the stock here imo. again, i looked at this stock to long, im not short, im trying to justify a long
-a takeover punt. emg or another white knight could lob a bid to stop the spiral and block a hostile, any offer above 40 cents would torch the shorts and double the price
a recap pop. if they land a fresh abl or convertible with light equity sweeteners the balance sheet overhang clears, ratings lift, the stock can squeeze back to >20 even if coal stays at one ninety
-royalty roll off trade. a time decay option on the stanwell royalty ending in early 27, market may start discounting that 2 years out, you ride the rerate then bail
-bond squeeze angle. sev.en finishing its note haul could yank liquidity, bond price rips, equity tracks up on the same derisking story for a fast 20% to 30%
-asset sale catalyst. dumping logan or a us prep plant for cash would slash capex and raise liquidity overnight, share price usually jumps on a non core sale
-short term btfd trade
-and lastly, your position, which is a baggie who doesnt understand what is going on just buying the dip it seems and praying.
(20min delay)