interesting post
@lostman, I have some sympathy for your POV however there is one huge caveat that needs to be added to your perspectives and that is no one, except the Chinese, saw the ability of the Chinese to corner the lithium market in Africa and South America and knew that the price of lithium would be so depressed for so long. It initially fooled ALB, us on HC including
@anatol, Rio, LTR, PLS, the Candians, you name it. Everyone was blind sided by this a few years ago and the long term consequences are that we are all in a fantastic asset which is ridiculously undervalued and played with by shorters while the BEOT waits for the inevitable turnaround. Clearly with the benefit of hindsight we should have sold at $3 if we got the chance but the evidence of EV uptake was clear then and clear now and I think what anatol is predicting that supply will be crushed by the growing demand and that the Chinese attempt to control the price will eventually backfire. I don't blame anyone for this other than the Chinese. Trump gets plenty wrong but trying to get the Chinese to play on a level playing field should be supported as their purpose is to dominate the entire world with their own EVs, BESS, battery technology and solar panels and so on. They also want to stop the West from developing their own supply chains that could challenge them. The Chinese view appears to be that we have too many elections, we are stupid to rely upon free market competition and individual innovation and private capital to improve our lives. In their view the Party should prevail and we just put up with it and have no rights. It is this dogma which has caused the lithium price to wallow and for us LTHs to all suffer.
As I said above, no one foresaw this but we all know it now if we open our eyes and we also can see how the Chinese Brave New World will fail because, while it looks efficient, it is the tyranny of the few over the majority. Your post seemed to suggest that anatol missed something. Well he did, he got the timing wrong as did most. Of course we must do our own research and not just follow posters such as anatol unquestionably, but I don't agree that we should just accept the Chinese actions here and live with it, we need to understand it and predict what will happen as a result of it. Only by doing that can we survive it and prosper. I do not want a Chinese system and I want LTR to be very successful. There is something inherently wrong with the Chinese system of exploitation, they seem to value life differently, they do not seem to care about Africa, its people,its workers or its environment. it also seems to want LTR and other western mines to fail or be owned/controlled by them. I think anatol provides a wonderful perspective here which we are all free to accept, learn from, criticise or ignore it is up to us because we are free, but in doing so I implore everyone here not to forget why we are here in a ridiculously undervalued lithium miner - China did this through its policies, not Gina, not anatol, not ALB, not even Trump. China want to control the price, sale, mining and refining of all critical minerals at the expense of everyone else. Fortunately, the West, Africa and Sth America are now aware of that.
if there is any doubt in anyone's mind about the growing demand and value of lithium then ask yourself this question, why are the Chinese trying to dominate the lithium supply and price and why are two US tech billionaires (Bezos and Gates) trying to buy the Southern Manono mine in the DRC with US support? in my view it is because they are all fighting over the future electrification of the world and LTR is also on that frontline. These are my perspectives for what they are worth and I should add that I still believe that LTR is a take over target but that the Board is batting aside all offers because they know what it is worth long term and so only a mighty price would get up.
(20min delay)