GDA good drinks australia ltd

General Meeting 2025– does it pass the pub test?

  1. 55 Posts.
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    Does the GDA-GM proposal meets the pubtest?

    The Board stated 30c was a grossundervaluing of the company, and that GDA should be valued at $18-$20/litre.Hence, we approved de-listing from the ASX.

    The proposed performance targets for theBoard/Leadership are baselining performance as anything above 30c and the $18-$20/litrehas left the equation.

    In detail:

    The performance incentives are dependenton GDA achieving specific targets, including share price targets:

    - $0.90 EoFY 2028

    - $1.20 EoFY 2029

    - $1.50 EoFY 2030

    I value GDA to be between:

    - $2.04 to $2.27current value EoFY 2025

    - $2.72 to $3.03 EoFY2030

    To obtain shareholder approval to de-listfrom the ASX, the Board stated the following:

    ‘The Board believes the Company remains significantly undervalued (at $0.30)by the market when compared to typical industry metrics such as sales volume,revenue, market share, and brand positioning.’

    ‘The undervaluation is evident when comparing GDA's enterprise value -which reflects a value of approximately $4 per litre for GDA’s core business(excluding hospitality)…

    ...to typical industry valuation metrics, which range between $18 to $20per litre based on factors such as sales volume, market share, brand growth andbrand margins.’

    I estimate the current value to be above$2 with an incentive-based stretch-target above $3.

    e.g.

    - 15 million litres(current volumes) at $20/litre = $300M company value

    - company value $300M /shares on issue (132,131,680) = $2.27 share price.

    The Board stated the following:

    typical industry valuation metrics, which range between $18 to $20per litre’

    ‘current volumes 15 million litres/annum, with a goal of achieving 18-20million litres.’

    Your thoughts?https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/7025/7025741-e991a85660e20eeb4da540cf9e260bb3.jpg

 
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