good lord its the running of the bulls, page-95

An unusual amount of EW talk here. I concur with most views that EW should only be used as a guide (at best IMHO). At worst it's next to useless, and only works in hindsight.

Worth noting (and it's not breaking any copyright law according them - see below) that Prechter has an alternate wave count showing a super bullish blow-off in the latest EW Theorist newsletter (February 15, 2011). As expected it's a series of 1's and 2's up with the a 3rd of a 3rd acceleration point yet to come. I think it looks better as it overcomes the lack of alternation in the 5-wave advance for the bearish count wave (C), although one could argue wave 2 and 4 look different enough (but I have some doubts). However, he gives the super bullish almost no weight for now and only presented it to discuss the two scenarios in light of the mass psychology compared to previous similar wave patterns. His reasoning based on mass psychology and market sentiment is the super bullish count is virtually impossible now.

Let's see what happens. Of course there are other possibilities. We could be forming only part of a more complex zig-zag formation over much of the rest of this year. As I alluded to, EW is best in hindsight, so let's wait and see. At the moment we should keep a close eye on any major breakdown to confirm his super bearish count, or a major runaway move on the upside to confirm his alternate but not preferred super bullish count. As usual expect the unexpected, which probably means neither of these scenarios will play out. I'm a day trader so it's not that relevant either way to me except it does worry me if either scenario does play out - the end result is terrible for us traders, short term for the former and longer term for the latter scenario. I prefer a an "orderly" market to continue forever but alas that's not possible.

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