I need to take more time to review everything. But a few things jump out. Excuse me for taking an hour to respond some of us have a life outside of hotcopper.
New slide below:
Slide from Feb this year below:
Costs up over 10% already. Services co gets some of the profit of course, but this effects the breakeven points. $50mil of EBITDA lost p/a from mineco at $90 US. Breakeven for MIN as a whole has gone from $54 to $57. This highlights that for Min service co to grow EBITDA it needs to rob Mineco. If Iron ore price decline, both Minco and Servicesco potentially get squeezed.
But here is the big one.
Let me translate, MIN has to get to 24.5Mtpa by next month. That's not 24.5Mtpa on service/public roads, that's 24.5Mpta on the haul road. The one MS bought.
If my understanding is correct, based on the current numbers MS can ask for the $1.1bil back in July this year. Forget the $200mil. If they do that, MIN is actually insolvent.
I don't think this tour was to show brokers how good the road is, I think this tour is back up sale process because MS can effectively put MIN into admin by July.
Please correct me if I'm wrong on this.
(20min delay)