"....the downgrade has been forewarned, but there are no major production issues."
Are you for real? What other reasons would there be for production downgrades?
I think Tilbs has got it spot on.
- The production downgrade, forewarned or not, will be material and way larger than people's expectation
- The production downgrade is long term; CY25, CY26, CY27, indicative of a long-term problem
- The chemistry and hydraulic capacity is problematic - this has been announced
- They are 6 months late with construction/commissioning completion. There is no evidence, none, to accept their word that all will be done by end June. They have not earned that trust
- CR will be significant to get them through CY25, CY26 and CY27
- Extended suspension is never a good omen
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