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ChaserGER

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30/05/25

21:38

Post #: 79259048
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Originally posted by sabine: ↑

But we must (possibly) assume UBS has no clients?

FWIW to those interested to read the UBS rationale to the supposed UBS clients …

cheers and a good weekend to all .

https://www.afr. com/markets/equity-markets/lithium-rout-intensifies-as-ubs-urges-clients-to-sell-20250530-p5m3lf

Lithium rout intensifies as UBS urges clients to sell

Nicola BlackburnMarkets reporter
May 30, 2025 – 7.35pm

UBS has warned clients that the brutal sell-off in lithium stocks is far from over, predicting that an oversupply of the battery material will continue to weigh on prices for the rest of this decade.

That caused the broker to shift back to an “underweight” rating on the Australian sharemarket’s lithium sector and cut its long-term spodumene, which is what Australian miners typically produce, forecast by 8 per cent to $US1200 a tonne.

Lithium spodumene prices have dived 90 per cent from record levels in 2022. AP

UBS downgraded ASX-listed producers Pilbara Minerals, IGO and Liontown Resources to a “sell” rating, and cut Mineral Resources to “neutral” – a move which inflicted more pain on the beaten down sector.

Pilbara Minerals was the biggest laggard on the S&P/ASX 200 on Friday, dropping 5.7 per cent to $1.24, while IGO fell 5.4 per cent to $3.88 and Liontown Resources declined 3.2 per cent to 60.5¢.

“Lithium markets remain oversupplied,” wrote UBS analyst Levi Spry in a note to clients. “We believe the market is still overestimating the long-term price.”

The broker’s bearish view comes after spodumene prices crashed to a fresh four-year low this week, and were trading at $US580 a tonne on Friday, according to S&P Global Platts. That’s far below the $US1150 a tonne priced into Australian lithium stocks, UBS warned.

The latest slump in prices has forced multiple Chinese producers to schedule planned maintenance, with one company even planning to shut one of its lithium refineries in Jiangxi for four months from June, Macquarie said this week.

And there are signs that local producers are preparing to follow suit – Wesfarmers last week trimmed expected output from its Mount Holland lithium mine in Western Australia this financial year.

“We expect more supply cuts,” Spry said.

Investors were hopeful that the worst of the lithium collapse was behind them as prices of spodumene looked to have stabilised at around $US800 a tonne earlier this year. It was a brief reprieve after a brutal 90 per cent collapse from its record above $US8000 a tonne in 2022.

UBS is tipping prices will recover slightly to $US750 a tonne next year and will not rise above $US1000 a tonne until 2029.

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"UBS is tipping prices will recover slightly to $US750 a tonne next year and will not rise above $US1000 a tonne until 2029."

Which means stay away from Lithium mines. The hype is over.

LTR Price at posting: 60.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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