So it looks like this can has been kicked down the road. CRN will enter 2026 with 80m of cash (at first glance) with Buchanan and Mammoth adding 2.5mt pa (roughly). If met coal stays at roughly 180-190, do we think crn limps through to the ncsa sometime in 2027? I've got it coming in 50m shy.
Here's hoping those 2 × 50m buckets are as accessible as stated in the investor call. My two part investment thesis has been proved partially wrong. Part 1) They will survive the ABL credit crunch and be rerated to 20c-40c (the market is saying 'wrong') and 2) As the company gets closer to the NCSA, demonstrating survivability, the company will rerate to 50c-$1.
The gamble on part 2 is still live, and looks worth it to me based on a risk reward. I recognise that in my head I have become a "Defender Of The Idea", I would love anyone to outline the bear case, short or not, without presupposing met coal going below 170/ton.
CRN Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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