Following this with interest and listening to the investor call as I write.
Wow! What a dogs breakfast. The numbers are horrendous and the outlook looks shocking. Not just in the near term, but in the medium term;
- Canada reduced immigration for FY25-28
- Canada down -65% on PCP
- Australia policy intention of increased visa fees, soft caps and onshore agent commission ban
- UK policy developments include 6% levy on higher education for international students and a host of fees and restrictions contained within the UK Whitepaper
- USA is an absolute basket case with a global pause imposed on new visa appointments announced only days ago (27th May) with visa rejections "up significantly".
There was a whole raft of information during the call that just did my head in. The continued reference to A.I. was disturbing and the analysts questions in relation to cost base vs a continued decline in revenue was interesting. To continually claim to be the leader and gaining market share seems a little hollow. This was queried by some analysts. The CEO said that there would be a flight to quality but the reality is that international students know full well that they're not welcome in the UK, AUS, Canada and the US. This tells me that international students are probably looking towards European institutions (that's just a personal opinion).
China doesn't appear to have much traction yet. For how long can IEL continue to increase their fees? Surely there's a ceiling when you consider that to come to Australia to study, not only have visa application fees increased, but savings deposit requirements have also elevated. For how long will they be able to continue to support the remuneration of staff and agents?
Pretty hard to justify a position. I've been one saying it's cheap since about 15 bucks. I got out at $12 and took my losses with me.
Quite simply, when you strip away the commentary surrounding long term structural growth the outlook seems dire. And that doesn't even take into account increasing competition, let alone how a ministers pen can determine a companies future.
I feel for those who invested earlier. IEL is a good company doing good things. But that's the way it goes sometimes.
(20min delay)