MSB - a new dawn, page-1908

It is clear to me that the shorters and sellers of Mesoblast are making their decisions without adequately considering the following:

1. The significance of the health effects of a single intramyocardial injection of Revascor in a large sub-group of high-risk patients with chronic heart failure. This sub-group (Patient Group 1) have ischemic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and inflammation. It is now 6 months since Mesoblast announced the updated analysis of the Dream-HF trial results in the peer-reviewed European Journal of Heart Failure. This trial was highly significant and well powered with 537 patients who had more than 30 months of follow-up at that time. The key results are nothing short of extraordinary for trial participants in Patient Group 1:
   
   • The risk of cardiovascular death was reduced by 80% (0.003) or by 60% (P = 0.037) depending on which inflammation biomarker was used.
   • 2-point MACE (heart attacks or strokes) was reduced by 88% (P = 0.005).
2. The positive signals of support from FDA and health administrators for new chronic disease treatments which have been brought to our attention by others posting on Hot Copper. These include the desire to speed up getting these treatments to market. FDA has granted Mesoblast Regenerative Medicines Advanced Therapy (RMAT) and Orphan Drug designations for Revascor.
3. The very short timeframes involved. The outcomes of last month's Type B meeting with FDA should be available later this month. If positive, then there is a good chance that accelerated approval of Revascor could be achieved by this time next year.
4. The blockbuster size of the market for treating ischemic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and inflammation. Heart failure is the biggest cause of deaths in the US. Approximately 6.7 million Americans over 20 years of age have heart failure (HF), and the prevalence is expected to rise to 8.7 million in 2030, 10.3 million in 2040, and 11.4 million by 2050. Heart disease cost about $252.2 billion from 2019 to 2020. (data from CDC). This includes the cost of health care services, medicines, and lost productivity due to death. I have not yet found statistics for Patient Group 1 but I would expect the numbers to be in the hundreds of thousands.
5. The value of this very advanced development. With no other treatment achieving anything like the results for Revascor, the potential market for Mesoblast is clearly very substantial. Yet at current share prices it seems that we are getting a free option on this treatment with every share.