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CHINA WILL BE VERY MUCH SHORT IN LITHIUM, page-302

  1. 3,784 Posts.
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    This post is built on a lazy binary and a poor understanding of how commodity markets work. On brand for this poster! Claiming that “volatility disproves manipulation” is simply wrong. Volatility doesn’t negate the possibility of manipulation - it can be a symptom of it. Markets are messy. Just because Chinese producers can’t fully control prices doesn’t mean they aren’t exerting strategic influence. That’s basic market reality, not some fringe conspiracy. The other assertion that Chinese lithium producers are only hedging and not at all trying to influence the market is laughably naive. Sure, hedging is a key reason for short positions - but to pretend there’s no speculative or strategic layer is absurd. These are state-aligned players in a geopolitically sensitive market. You think they’re just quietly managing risk like textbook examples from CME slides? Come on. And then calling the idea of CCP manipulation “irrational”? No, what’s irrational is pretending a regime with a documented history of meddling in global commodity markets (rare earths, steel, coal, even pork) is suddenly above such behaviour in lithium, of all things. That’s either ignorance or willful blindness.The CCP doesn’t need to maintain total price control to engage in manipulation. They just need to move the market when it suits them. That’s what influence looks like. So no, hedging doesn’t exonerate anyone. And no, volatility doesn’t absolve the market of interference. This post oversimplifies to the point of nonsense. Not dissimilar to your PLS “technical analysis” that has been consistently wrong for 2 years and running.
    GLTAH
    Last edited by Rorschach88: 10/06/25
 
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