Israel Attacks Iran
A different picture emerged since my post last night — made hurriedly in the airport in Dubai before my plane lifted off — regarding prospects for attacking Iran. Initially, it looked like Trump was battening-down-the-hatches and was going to assist Israel in attacking Iran. Now, with the benefit of 24 hours and new information, President Trump is not ruling out further negotiations with Iran, but he also is not forcing Israel to stand down. The prospect of an Israeli attack remains high, if we take Netanyahu and his government at their word.
The ordered departure of some US diplomats and dependents, and some military personnel, throughout the Middle East (aka West Asia) and North Africa is not a good sign. It is possible that Trump is using this as a negotiating ploy to put more pressure on Iran in order to secure the deal the US wants — i.e., the elimination of Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities.
Just after I wrote the opening two paragraphs, breaking news out of Tehran — at least six explosions. At this point, I do not know if those were missiles hitting Tehran or air defense systems firing at Israeli targets. Regardless, this is likely a tipping point that will derail the negotiations that were supposed to take place on Sunday between Iran and the United States, with Oman mediating. Unlike October 27, when Iran held its fire and did not launch retaliatory strikes against Israel, I think Iran is going to launch a significant counter-strike on Israel.
BREAKING: ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER KATZ ANNOUNCES THE START OF MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST IRAN!
Israel has crossed a line and is going to pay a significant price. Oil prices are surging. I expect that Iran will confine its response to attacking Israeli military and nuclear sites. Although Israel’s attack could not have taken place without the support of Trump and his administration, I believe that Russia and China will counsel Iranian leaders to avoid hitting US targets unless their is clear evidence that US bases or assets were involved in the attack.
Fire burning at Mehrabad Airbase, Tehran.
Iranian jets went airborne as soon as the Israeli projectiles were launched. Likely to avoid jet losses.
