Ann: Trading Halt, page-23

Look-back window	VWAP (AUD)	Date span used
20 trading days	≈ A$ 4.78	15 May 2025 → 12 Jun 2025
30 trading days	≈ A$ 4.49	01 May 2025 → 12 Jun 2025

Valuation multiple on after-tax NPV (US $1.61 bn)	Equity value (US $ bn)*	A$/share**	Premium to last close (A$5.00)
0.8 × (typical low-end P/NAV for developers)	1.11	A$4.95	~-1 %
1.0 × (par to NPV – common “full” bid)	1.42	A$6.4	≈ +27 %
1.1 × (aggressive/competitive)	1.59	A$7.1	≈ +42 %
1.2 × (scarce, hotly-contested asset)	1.77	A$7.8	≈ +56 %

* Equity value = Enterprise value minus estimated net debt (~A$275 m)
** Using 345.3 m shares on issue (stockanalysis.com) and a 2025 average FX of 1 USD = 1.54 AUD (exchange-rates.org).

Why ~A$6–7 per share looks most likely

1. Dundee’s own study pegs Vareš at US $1.61 bn NPV (5 % real, after-tax). Paying right around 1.0 × NPV for an asset that is already in ramp-up is consistent with recent precious-metal M&A, which tends to fall in the 0.9–1.1 × P/NAV band for near-production projects.

2. Net debt adjustment: ADT carries ~A$275 m net debt (A$308 m debt – A$33 m cash). Taking that on means the equity cheque can be ~US $180 m smaller than the headline enterprise value.

3. Shares outstanding: 345 m CDIs translate every A$100 m of equity value into ~A$0.29 per share.

4. Usual takeover premia: Precious-metal developers in Australia/Canada have seen 25–40 % premia to the undisturbed price. ADT last traded at A$5.00, so an offer in the A$6.30–7.10 range slots neatly into that band.

5. Strategic fit & competition: Dundee Precious Metals has the balance-sheet capacity but faces few obvious competing bidders; that argues for paying about par to NPV, not far above it.

Putting it together

• Base-case bid: ≈ A$6.40 per share (cash and/or DPM scrip), implying enterprise value ≈ NPV (1.0 ×).

• Stretch case (if a rival emerges or board resistance): up to A$7.10.

• Low-ball unlikely: anything under ~A$5.50 would value ADT below 0.9 × NPV and below recent peer deals, so the board would likely reject it.

Bottom line: Expect Dundee to pitch the initial offer around A$6½ per ADT CDI, with scope to creep toward A$7 if a bidding war or hard-ball negotiations develop.

(Do your own diligence; market conditions and deal structure could shift these numbers.)