Lyns comparison to peers, page-6

Try digging deeper.
You are correct and with the severe drop on REEO concentrate to China it is reasonable to expect MP loses in CY Q2 to widen.

I admit that I am very focused on Finical performance. Number two is project performance. Several things count for Project performance you cannot grow without good project performance.

1. Metting objectives close to on time and at cost
2. Warning about problems well in advance of them occurring.
3. Communicating what you plan to do to limit damage.
4. Staying true to original goals. Changing plans always has far more repercussions than expected. Look at Lynas and Texas

MP has problems with projects. All companies do. Compared to Lynas MP has an A and Lynas has an F.
Examples of Major problems at Lynas.

1. Seven years after we were told NEXT would increase NdPr to 7,2 KT in 2Q s max, Lynas is still at original name plate, 6 KT.
2. The 2025 plan released in 2019 was suppose to cost A$500M Today they have spent over A$ 1.7B and will very likely be over $2B before Texas is done.
3. Never has Lynas told us in advance when there are major problems with projects. I suspect, cannot prove, there project management is so bad they do not really know what is happening on a weekly or monthly basis.

Based on this as well as it's US location, MP will improve faster than Lynas. It is not clear yet. I am watching MP as close as Lynas. I would not buy either right now but if things go as I think they will, I will buy MP first. Probably start with Calls. Unfortunately as a US citizen I cannot buy Calls in Lynas.

The one major problem I have with MP is how they plan to grow. They are planning to grow Horizontally by doing metals and magnets. This was GWM plan as well. GWM's lack of focus on Mining and refining was a major factor in their demise. Many B schools support horizontal growth, I am not in the mainstream with this.. In fact many companies do it successfully in the beginning. History has show only a very good management team can keep it going. The best and biggest example is Jack Welch and GE It worked great till he resigned. Then totally fell apart. Monsanto did a great job but could not sustain it and sold many divisions till Bayer bought what was left. Others include Alcoa, Us steel, Standard oil. Standard OIL split up was forced by USG. The parts quickly became more valuable than the whole. In spite of horizontal growth plans I will still buy MP when it looks correct. The horizontal growth just means it has to be watched more carefully. It will have many good years before the cracks start showing.

I like Lynas's Vertical growth plans better. Increasing volume and types of oxides. Adding heavies has been on plan which is a major improvement in project management. I am suspicious about Volume because they still have not given a clue what it will be. They will have to give a range in either Q4 or AR, report or CC or many will become suspicious that it is so small it will not contribute much to revenue. Their success is still very important. It lays groundwork for scaling up to large volumes. How long will people wait for it to scale up?

Thank you For this. Good article Looks at both sides not just hoped for results.

Do some investigation into one time and ongoing expenses and problems. A US presents does not change any thing as far as US listing. If you separate out the US division to make it a 100% US company then it does become easier for that division. How does that help Lynas AU?

Yes the Texas plant is receiving major Funds from USG. To say it is being paid for By USG is just wrong. Look at how AL just went to USG for more money. If it was a USG project AL would not have to plead.