...America has already joined the war by positioning its military to surround Iranian airspace and soon to be joined by its USS Nimitz arriving in 6 days.
...Quite clearly Trump is giving the Iranian regime a final chance for an unconditional surrender before mobilising its bunker bomb to aid Israel in destroying the Fordow nuclear facility.
US markets responded negatively only after realisation that America is joining the war.
Market sentiment was also affected by poor retail sales data, Core m-o-m retail sales fell -0.3% vs 0.2% est , Retail sales fell -0.9% vs -0.5% est.
> Dow closed -299pts down, S&P500 -0.84% to 5,982 and Nasdaq -0.91%
>AUD swung from 65.40c to 64.80c
> Gold swung wildly throughout the day, edging back to $3,388
> Silver sustained its move above $37, rising to $37.13 and A$57.30
..yes, why would the US market rise if US does not join the war and fall if and when it does?
..this is largely driven by domestic market participants that do not want US to join the war
..arguably the war would be more protracted if US does not join the war, with prospect of more prolonged disruption to Iranian oil outputs which would sustain higher oil prices for longer
..but the fear is that with an escalation involving US participation, Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz and cause a large spike in oil price. https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/1934987339102605421
..by going to war, which I opine is >60% chance, Trump has betrayed his domestic MAGA base which was promised 'no war' and America First. Tucker Carlson has also turned against him, citing the end of America exceptionalism and his reign if he does.
..behind the scenes, the knives are out to replace him with Vance for any mistake he makes. That would a sad day for America.
