comment from bpt thread

from autosime on BPT thread

"Spoke to the company today and let me tell you r=this are looking great
1. 12 million boe reserves from STO to be booked before years end and there is another approx half of the development wells still to occur. This is seperate tpo the SACB 150 petajules that STO want to buy. They are still talking to other parties re this Gas, - nothing like competitive pressure. This is the equivalent to 28 million boe and arguably even more if oil linked
2. Shale core have been analysed for structural integrity which is very good and core sent off to US to analyse gas content.
3. BPT aim to frac both encounter and holdfast, form this thy would like to book a maiden resource form the areas surrounding these wells. Discussed BHP transaction and comment they still hold the view there shale is high quality on the info thus far. BHP bought 10 tcf of resource, view is BPT could have 20 tcf of resource ( 10% of TCF) thus value comparison - 10 billion
Shale strategy is to pursue development with a JV - perhaps be free carried but as we thought they need to do te work to derisk first

Meeting with SXY next week to discuss exploration program - approx another 11 wells ready to commence now

LKO wombat results. more work to be done to frac and flow test in the next couple of months

so it is possible, outside the big value shale and Tanzania assets, that the core assets deliver a huge value upside themselves.

The broker analysis which value BPTs core assets around 1 dollar to 1.30 on 66 million boe , if the SACB deal is done thats another 28 million boe. Only reason STO cant book the reserve is they havent guaranteed the supply from BPT

so potential upgrade in reserves by June

12 million from STO's upgrade - done
2 million form ITC done
XX from 26 well drilling campaign - lets say 5 million
28 million from signing SACBN JV or with anyone else

total reserve upgrade 46 million x 15 npv - 690 million dollars or 63 cents per share in CORE value . this comment is not a ramp , BPT is an absolute bargain at these prices
Capt , I am going to supermarket to buy some tea bags for the kettle"

So i figure if they think 20tcf resource and BHP have paid 4.50b for the 10tcf resource part of that deal (.25b for pipelines etc) then the 10% ADE resource would be worth around 950m assuming it gets to maturity. So that would be approx 20 bagger on current mkt cap. And that is without anything else that might come off for ADE in the meantime. Of course that would be most likely a best case result. Either way that would be $2.80 / share.

A lot of things need to go well to get there though ! IMO