RIO BHP all doing PER of 11-13 mate
who taught you that 10 is fantasy, its reality?
50MTpa is not guided now but 35MTpa is for Sept Q1
Yet they are doing that 4 months ahead of schedule, now at a 37mtpa run rate last 6 days
meaning it can be extrapolated to be at current rise of 24% per month to be at around 50MTpa by Sept
they are adding transhippers and 1km of road is completed every day
do the math !
Expect a guidance change from 23 June to 4 July as the shipping figures are way above their guidance for june/Q4 and they will have to advise market, likely on a down day.
guidance for June was 27-31mtpa say 29mtpa but doing 33-34MTpa
(escalated higher to 36mtpa last 10 days) "Rates are 35 mt average since 6 June, 37.7 m tonne average over the last 6 days"
guidance for May was 25mtpa but did 28.4mtpa (see above BD excel sheet)
guidance for April was ? but did 15.6mtpa
shipped sales have increased by 250% since April
Q4 going to be a blowout imho -not expected
expect shipped ore and sales to be 10-15% higher due to June blowout - not expected
I expect costs to drop - not expected
I expect extra capex for the haul road & $150M for Mt Marion - expected by market.
I expect no CR no dilution and debt payment on schedule - market ignores & doesnt believe this
I expect higher cash at bank with that June cash windfall hitting the books - not expected
This is all irrelevant as the macro factors are smashing it today
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