This is how I see the odds split for a recession. Above the black line, recession less likely. Below the red line, recession more likely. The Fed fund rate tracks this over time. https://x.com/badcharts1/status/1936733066493313530
...going forwards, Trump's bombardment of Iran's nuclear sites adds to increased odds of a recession
...oil price and gasoline goes higher, increasing inflation and reduces Fed's inclination to reduce rates, while consumer sentiment and investments dive further on increased uncertainties amidst protracted hostilities.
...markets just recovering from the tariff/trade wars 'unprepared' for another major war that has potential greater consequences than the Ukraine war.
...Trump's hope that its once-off strike to destroy Iran's nuclear facility can be followed by a peace agreement without retaliation is both grossly naive and rather unhinged.
