Hi Pat,
There are some possible spikes over the next 6 months ASSUMING management does what they say they will do, and based on past performance that's a big ask. Looking at my crystal ball,
The positives:
1. It should spike on a restart and if it operates for 3 months it should hold a fair bit of value. Note however we are launching off a very low base at under 1c. I agree there will be a pull-back on the spike however there should be a residual gain for holding some value.
2. The release of performace data(extraction efficiency, throughput, purity, etc) should give another spike, assuming that performance meets or exceeds expectations.
3. ingots production should also provide another spike.
The negatives
a) An operational failure during MgO production would be disasterous, shattering confidence with a big drop in share price resulting in unplanned cash burn.
b) If they fail to operate it for the 3 months and to obtain performance data , I'd say it will then be on the path to insolvency.
c) If they succeed wit hthe 3 months MgO operation, delaying ingots production will also drag down the share price. Remember that after the 3 months of MgO production the plant will sit idle until ingots production, burning cash.
I would expect to see a few capital raises along that journey.
If we get to ingots production, then following ingots production, if we retain the current Board and Management, I see a few dark years ahead. The Company will be cash flow negative until the commercial plant begins production and I can't see that happening until 2028. We will see the share price decline rapidly. By the time they select a site, design the plant with ancillary services, get approvals, tender, build/construct, EPA approvals, commissioning and getting to production I see it will be early 2028 at best. I still remember the last prospectus which siad the commercail plant would operating 2026 - absolute rubbish and I think the Board new that and deliberately lied in that prospectus.
The only way that can change is:
1. a takover
2. a big(really big) investor, however that would probably take us over 4 bilion shares so our holdings would be very severely diluted.
If big investor comes along we would need a new Board and new CEO to make good.
Early days but the big question will be whether to dump my shares after ingots production because I can only see the share price sliding until that commercail plant gets up and going.
Once again, this is from looking onto my crystal ball and reading the tea leaves, so it's all a bit hazy. This is not a stock for the feint hearted while the current Board and CEO are running it.
That's my 2c worth quick thoughts.
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