Rereading, in the cold light of a UK morning, the scenario seems clear - HR's much reiterated point that it's all there in what's carefully said.
- The sole prospective source of revenue generation mentioned for the medium term is the cellulite roll out. This will be through 'Elixia' (ie. by POH directly) in Australia & Asia, Le Metier continuing its run elsewhere. No new partners.
Comments: (1) A major rollout costs a lot of money.
(2) It needs a lot of marketing expertise.
POH have neither. A fund raising large enough for a major rollout seems scarcely credible. It looks potentially AMATEUR - to be kind.
- The Board began to look at the Balance sheet 'in the later part of 2010.' Remarkably late, indeed incompetently so on any normal measure, given their ambitious plans. Why then so late? Assuming even a basic level of competence, the only explanation that comes to mind is they expected big things from third party deals and were given the bum's rush by everybody they approached. Naivety? Does this explain the sudden rush to strengthen the Board?
- The funding arrangements when announced will tell us a good deal. It is difficult to believe they will not be for a substantial amount, given the need to finance ongoing R&D, etc. & the product launch simply eating cash.
In summary, is this launch going to be a rather third division affair, with inadequate resources both financially & people? A last throw for current shareholders? There is no doubt the business has great long term value. But will it accrue to current shareholders or those who pick up the pieces? The terms of financing might be very interesting for al of us.
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