That's the data based on Stonedfish's
evening update. They did 5 yesterday; 35.4 average over last 13 days, 34.3 since June 6, and 33.3 since June 1.
I've added to the table the spot AUD USD. It is only after modelling it properely i realised the MINs ONslow earnings as just as senstive to the AUD USD rate as to the US $ IRON price (holding all other variables constant)
I think i will be move to this format of updating the data once per day, rather than twice, as the morning data is a bit inaccurate depending on whether Stonedfish reports early eg 6 am MINS have typically done 1 unload, or 9 am then they've done 2 or 3. Updating once a day in the morning will remove the noise volatility.
But where possible, i'll also provide updates during the day of how much i expect them to do on the day.
I still need STonedfish and or Windcsreen to report data to me on a once every 12 hour frequency, otherwise i lose track of where the transhippers are.BHP and FMG in US closed about 1% below Aus close, based on my trading model MINs may trade about $20 or slightly less, which will provide very good buying opportunities for the long term investor.
A reflection on iNdex buying and MINsI was reflecting yesterday, that most of the instituations and super funds are index huggers, don't really do fundamental analysis any more, and short term share prices basically have nothing to do with inherent value:
Which would you prefer to BUY: CBA 30 X, WES PE 30 X, Gozman Gomez 100 X, SIGMA PE 50 X,
or ...... MINS PE 4 X (with a large growth option 50 mt, lithium, gas), and yesterday CBA up 2% and MINs down 6%.
Does that make sense to anyone here? What's the difference. CBA, WES, Sigma are in the ASX 50 index whereas MIn has just been removed from the ASX 50 in March quarterly rebalance.
My strong view is MINs will re rate to + $50 over the next year or two, be reincluded in the ASX 50, and those same superfunds that were selling to me now at $20 , will be buying it off me then at +$50.
Happy trading.
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| MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services) | 30.5 | |
| Date since | Total days | Rate shipped per day tonnes | Total transhipper unloads | Total shipped (tonnes million) | Rate per year(million tonnes) | Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m | |
| 05-May-25 | 52 | 77308 | 201 | 4.02 | 28.2 | $862 | |
| 11-May-25 | 46 | 80000 | 184 | 3.68 | 29.2 | $892 | |
| 20-May-25 | 37 | 81622 | 151 | 3.02 | 29.8 | $910 | |
| 01-Jun-25 | 25 | 91200 | 114 | 2.28 | 33.3 | $1,017 | |
| Current | 13 | 96923 | 63 | 1.26 | 35.4 | $1,080 | |
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| Free cash flow (FCF) estimates (entire business) |
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| Fy 26 | Fy 27 | Fy 28 | Mkt cap $ m |
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| FCF $ m | 1091 | 1317 | 816 | 3923 |
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| Price/FCF | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.8 | FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28) | |
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| 82% |
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| Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025 |
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| Iron Ore price US$ | |
| Airlie | Coolibah | Montebello | Rosily | Peak |
| $92.70 | |
| 47 | 49 | 46 | 49 | 9.5 |
| Aud Usd | |
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| 0.652 | |
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(20min delay)