Thanks StonedFish, they ended up getting 6 away yesterday after Airlie left late, equals 43 m t pa average yesterday. Tables below: - Minres has averged 36 m t pa over the last 14 days, including 3 high wind days, where wind speeds were above 40 km per hour! - Rate is 34.4 m t pa since June 6, and - 33.4 m t pa over all of June.
All the data overnight etc is very good: Iron ore rallied 0.8% to 93.55 BHP up 4% in US, closed 2.2% above the Australian close.
Putting all this data together, MINs trades on a Price to Free cash flow multiple of 3.6 X in FY 26, and 3 X Fy 27, based on current production rates of 36 m t pa.
My trading model predicts MINs will open at $21.90.
My feel is it may well trade a fair bit higher today, as other data is out that is also very bullish. I will provide commentary on that too.
Happy trading in MINs today.
MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services)
30.8
Date since
Total days
Rate shipped per day tonnes
Total transhipper unloads
Total shipped (tonnes million)
Rate per year(million tonnes)
Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m
05-May-25
53
77736
206
4.12
28.4
$875
11-May-25
47
80426
189
3.78
29.4
$905
20-May-25
38
82105
156
3.12
30.0
$924
01-Jun-25
26
91538
119
2.38
33.4
$1,030
Current
14
98571
69
1.38
36.0
$1,110
Free cash flow (FCF) estimates (entire business)
Fy 26
Fy 27
Fy 28
Mkt cap $ m
FCF $ m
1124
1360
846
4063
Price/FCF
3.6
3.0
4.8
FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28)
82%
Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025
Iron Ore price US$
Airlie
Coolibah
Montebello
Rosily
Peak
$93.55
47
51
47
50
10.5
Aud Usd
0.655
MIN Price at posting:
$20.90 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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