Thanks StonedFish, they ended up getting 6 away yesterday after Airlie left late, equals 43 m t pa average yesterday.
Tables below:
- Minres has averged 36 m t pa over the last 14 days, including 3 high wind days, where wind speeds were above 40 km per hour! - Rate is 34.4 m t pa since June 6, and
- 33.4 m t pa over all of June.
All the data overnight etc is very good:
Iron ore rallied 0.8% to 93.55
BHP up 4% in US, closed 2.2% above the Australian close.
Putting all this data together, MINs trades on a Price to Free cash flow multiple of 3.6 X in FY 26, and 3 X Fy 27, based on current production rates of 36 m t pa.
My trading model predicts MINs will open at $21.90.
My feel is it may well trade a fair bit higher today, as other data is out that is also very bullish. I will provide commentary on that too.
Happy trading in MINs today.
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| MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services) | 30.8 | |
| Date since | Total days | Rate shipped per day tonnes | Total transhipper unloads | Total shipped (tonnes million) | Rate per year(million tonnes) | Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m | |
| 05-May-25 | 53 | 77736 | 206 | 4.12 | 28.4 | $875 | |
| 11-May-25 | 47 | 80426 | 189 | 3.78 | 29.4 | $905 | |
| 20-May-25 | 38 | 82105 | 156 | 3.12 | 30.0 | $924 | |
| 01-Jun-25 | 26 | 91538 | 119 | 2.38 | 33.4 | $1,030 | |
| Current | 14 | 98571 | 69 | 1.38 | 36.0 | $1,110 | |
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| Free cash flow (FCF) estimates (entire business) |
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| Fy 26 | Fy 27 | Fy 28 | Mkt cap $ m |
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| FCF $ m | 1124 | 1360 | 846 | 4063 |
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| Price/FCF | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.8 | FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28) | |
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| 82% |
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| Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025 |
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| Iron Ore price US$ | |
| Airlie | Coolibah | Montebello | Rosily | Peak |
| $93.55 | |
| 47 | 51 | 47 | 50 | 10.5 |
| Aud Usd | |
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| 0.655 | |
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(20min delay)